申万公用环保周报:机制电价省间差异大,欧亚气价持续下探-20251208
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-08 10:15

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility and environmental sectors, particularly in electricity and natural gas [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant regional differences in mechanism electricity pricing, with recent auction results approaching upper limits across multiple provinces, indicating strong demand and government support for renewable energy projects [4][10]. - Natural gas prices in Europe continue to decline, while U.S. prices have reached a new high for 2023, driven by increased heating demand due to cold weather [14][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of refined operational strategies for power stations, as profitability varies significantly across regions and projects [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - Recent mechanism electricity auction results show prices close to upper limits in regions like Hebei and Ningxia, with significant volumes of wind and solar energy being auctioned [8][9]. - The report notes that the differences in mechanism electricity pricing reflect local consumption capabilities and policy directions [10][11]. 2. Natural Gas - U.S. Henry Hub spot prices reached $5.19/mmBtu, a 12.91% increase week-on-week, while European gas prices, such as TTF and NBP, have seen declines of 5.57% and 9.96% respectively [14][15]. - The report indicates a 1.3% year-on-year decline in China's apparent natural gas consumption in October, with expectations for growth in Q4 due to seasonal heating demands [31][33]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include investing in hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guodian Power, as well as coal-fired power companies such as Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian [12]. - For natural gas, the report suggests focusing on integrated companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved profitability [33][34].