Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-08 10:45Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report expects the stainless steel futures price to undergo a moderately strong adjustment, with attention on the resistance level of 12,600 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract was 12,510 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 02 contract spread was -115 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -13,850 lots, a decrease of 3,325 lots, and the main contract position was 85,685 lots, a decrease of 3,729 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of stainless steel was 61,556 tons, a decrease of 63 tons [2]. b. Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi was 13,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton, and the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi was 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract was 460 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons, and the total monthly nickel - iron output was 2.29 million metal tons, an increase of 0.12 million metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons, and the monthly import volume of nickel - iron was 90.51 tons, a decrease of 18.02 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price was 120,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton, and the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 890 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 5 yuan/nickel point [2]. - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome was 75.78 tons, a decrease of 2.69 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 180 tons, an increase of 3.73 tons, and the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 58.53 tons, a decrease of 1.23 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel was 45.85 tons, a decrease of 2.95 tons [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing construction area was 49,061.39 million square meters, an increase of 3,662.39 million square meters, and the monthly output of excavators was 3.09 million units, a decrease of 0.07 million units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors was 2.19 million units, a decrease of 0.43 million units, and the monthly output of small tractors was 0.9 million units, a decrease of 0.1 million units [2]. f. Industry News - The US September core PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. September real personal consumption expenditure was unexpectedly flat month - on - month, and the previous value was revised down from 0.4% to 0.2%. In December, the one - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan dropped to 4.1%, and the five - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.2% [2]. - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, China will implement a special action to boost consumption, promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, and increase the intensity of inclusive policies directly benefiting consumers; focus on relaxing market access and format integration to expand service consumption. China will actively expand independent opening - up, promote innovative development of trade, and expand the space for two - way investment cooperation [2]. - Li Lecheng, Secretary of the Leading Party Members' Group and Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, chaired a seminar to plan the work ideas and measures for the "15th Five - Year Plan" and its opening year. He emphasized efforts in strengthening the foundation and creating value, promoting the stable growth of the industrial economy, comprehensively deepening reforms with the focus on addressing "involution - style" competition, ensuring the security of key industrial chains and supply chains, and enhancing security capabilities in areas such as networks, data, and artificial intelligence [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the US GDP growth rate will reach 3% this year, and the inflation rate is expected to drop significantly next year. The bond market is having its best performance since 2020 [2]. g. Viewpoint Summary - At the raw material end, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. However, the nickel - iron output in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased [2]. - At the supply end, the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in output is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - At the demand end, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the stainless steel export volume is showing a downward trend. The impact of previous export squeezes is beginning to appear. Market purchasing willingness is low, and overall inquiries and transactions are average. Therefore, the national stainless steel social inventory is showing a narrow increase [2]. - Technically, the position is stable while the price is rising, and the short - selling sentiment is decreasing [2].