瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upstream zinc ore import volume has declined due to the continued deterioration of the internal - external price ratio, and the loss of importing zinc concentrates in China has widened. Domestic smelters have started winter raw material reserves and prefer to purchase domestic zinc concentrates. However, the competition among smelters for domestic ore has increased, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, with expected output decline. [3] - Overseas supply remains tight. The Shanghai - London ratio has remained low recently, resulting in import losses in China and an open export window. It is expected to turn into a net - export situation in the future to relieve domestic supply pressure. [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real - estate sector is a drag, while the infrastructure and home - appliance sectors are also weakening. The automotive sector has some bright spots due to policy support. Downstream markets mainly purchase on - demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have corrected, trading sentiment has improved, spot premiums have increased, and domestic inventories have decreased slightly. LME zinc inventories have rebounded, but the spot premium has remained at a historically high level. [3] - Technically, with increased trading volume, open interest, and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has heated up. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 24,000 - yuan level. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main - contract is 23,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the spread between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 15 yuan. [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,098.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.5 US dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 214,900 lots, an increase of 6,840 lots. [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 13,920 lots, a decrease of 93 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. [3] - The SHFE inventory is 91,916 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons; the LME inventory is 55,375 tons, an increase of 1,050 tons. [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,130 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] - The basis of the ZN main - contract is - 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is 163 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 79.66 US dollars. [3] - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 90 yuan/ton (the information may be incomplete); the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 19,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons. According to ILZSG, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons. [3] - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG in the current month is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons. The domestic refined zinc production in the current month is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume in the current month is 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume in the current month is 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume in the current month is 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons. [3] - The social zinc inventory is 133,900 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production volume of galvanized sheets in the current month is 1 million tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets in the current month is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons. [3] - The newly - started housing area in the current month is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the completed housing area in the current month is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production volume in the current month is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production volume in the current month is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.29%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.3%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.94%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.75%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. [3] 3.7 Industry News - In the United States, the core PCE price index in September increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, basically in line with market expectations. The real personal consumption expenditure in September was flat month - on - month. In December, the one - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan dropped to 4.1%, the lowest since January this year, and the five - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.2%. [3] - Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao stated that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, special actions to boost consumption will be deeply implemented, commodity consumption will be expanded and upgraded, and more inclusive policies directly reaching consumers will be strengthened. Service consumption will be expanded by focusing on relaxing market access and promoting business - format integration. Active efforts will be made to expand independent opening - up, promote trade innovation and development, and expand the space for two - way investment cooperation. [3] - Li Lecheng, Secretary of the Leading Party Members’ Group and Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, chaired a seminar to study and plan the work ideas and measures for the "15th Five - Year Plan" and its first year. He emphasized the need to strengthen the foundation and create value, promote the stable growth of the industrial economy, comprehensively deepen reforms, ensure the safety of key industrial chains and supply chains, and enhance the security capabilities in areas such as networks, data, and artificial intelligence. [3] - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the US GDP growth rate will reach 3% this year, inflation is expected to drop significantly next year, and the bond market will have its best performance since 2020. [3]