瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience short - term shock adjustments, and investors should pay attention to the resistance level at 119,000 [3] - On the macro - front, the US September core PCE index increase is in line with expectations, actual personal spending is stagnant, and consumer short - term inflation expectations have dropped to the lowest point at the beginning of the year. On the fundamental side, nickel ore imports are on a downward trend due to the rainy season in the Philippines. The RKAB approval and possible export policy changes in Indonesia have limited actual impact on supply recently. The smelting end has a large supply pressure in the pure nickel market, while the demand end shows an upward trend [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 118,030 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 240; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 170 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 14,970 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 85; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 111,585 lots, with a daily decrease of 6,051 [3] - The net buy volume of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai nickel is - 26,832 lots, with a daily increase of 797; the LME nickel inventory is 253,116 tons, with no change [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 42,508 tons (weekly), with an increase of 1,726 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 8,622 tons, with an increase of 6 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 34,500 tons, with a daily decrease of 264 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,200 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150; the average spot price of 1 nickel plates in the Yangtze River is 120,200 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the NI main contract is 2,170 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 90 [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 190.98 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 0.28 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 million tons, with a decrease of 143.17 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,469.71 million tons (weekly), with a decrease of 17.62 million tons [3] - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 0.61 US dollars/ton; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.29 million metal tons, with an increase of 0.12 million metal tons [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, with a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 90.51 million tons, with a decrease of 18.02 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 180 million tons, with an increase of 3.73 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.53 million tons, with a decrease of 1.23 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The US September core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. The actual personal consumption expenditure in September was unexpectedly flat month - on - month. The one - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in December dropped to 4.1%, and the five - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.2% [3] - Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao stated that during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, China will implement a special action to boost consumption, expand and upgrade commodity consumption, and increase inclusive policies for consumers. It will also expand service consumption and promote trade innovation and two - way investment cooperation [3] - Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Lecheng emphasized promoting the stable growth of the industrial economy, comprehensively deepening reforms, and ensuring the security of key industrial chains and supply chains [3] - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the US GDP growth rate will reach 3% this year, and the inflation rate is expected to drop significantly next year [3]