PVC周报：冠通期货研究报告-20251208

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - The report does not mention the investment rating of the PVC industry [1][3][27] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a weak and volatile state recently due to factors such as a slight decline in the PVC start - up rate, high inventory, weak real - estate demand, and falling prices of raw materials like coking coal [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Supply Side - The PVC start - up rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89% week - on - week, still at a relatively high level in recent years. Some device start - ups, such as those of Hangjin Technology and Sichuan Jinlu, declined [3][16] - New production capacities: Tianjin Bohua with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons is in full - load production, while Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua with annual capacities of 300,000 tons each are in low - load operation after commissioning [3] 2. Demand Side - The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased slightly, and the orders for downstream products were poor [3] - From January to October 2025, the real - estate industry was still in the adjustment phase. Investment, new construction, and completion areas had large year - on - year declines, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion further decreased. As of the week of December 7, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 28.93% week - on - week, reaching the lowest level in recent years [3][21] 3. Export Situation - India terminated the BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty in India is also likely to be cancelled. However, after Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, generally lowered its December quotations by $30 - 60 per ton, export orders declined, and last week's export orders were basically stable [3] 4. Inventory - As of the week of December 4, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.55% week - on - week to 1.0589 million tons, 26.77% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory pressure was still large [23] 5. Market Sentiment and Future Trend - Although the National Development and Reform Commission's meeting on formulating cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition gave some support to bulk commodities, the PVC fundamentals were still weak. The start - up expectations of production enterprises such as Yibin Tianyuan and Ningbo Zhenyang decreased, the start - up rate declined slightly, and the output decline was limited. The futures warehouse receipts were still at a high level, the cancellation of India's BIS policy on PVC had limited support, December is the traditional off - season for PVC demand, and the falling prices of coking coal and other factors suppressed market sentiment, so PVC is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [3] 6. Basis - The current 01 basis is - 16 yuan per ton, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level [11]