Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased to over 80% due to weak US economic data, and Trump's hint at Fed chair candidates has undermined the Fed's independence, causing the US dollar to decline and supporting metal prices. China's 14th Five - Year Plan focuses on cultivating copper - end enterprises in AI and new energy, releasing positive demand signals for copper prices. The supply side remains tight, while the downstream shows some resilience, so copper prices still have upward momentum. However, after the continuous price increase, the downstream's purchasing power is insufficient, so short - term minor corrections should be watched out for, and the medium - to - long - term trend is bullish [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Macro: Weak US economic data boosts the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December to over 80%, and Trump's hint at Fed chair candidates weakens the Fed's independence, leading to a continuous decline in the US dollar and supporting metal prices. China's 14th Five - Year Plan focuses on copper - end enterprises in AI and new energy, releasing positive demand signals [3] - Supply: The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% by its members in 2026 due to copper concentrate processing fees hitting historical lows. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower year - on - year and month - on - month. In December, 4 smelters are under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production, and December production is expected to increase due to previous restarts [3] - Demand: After the continuous price increase, the downstream's purchasing power is insufficient. Copper tube enterprises are cautious in production due to rising copper prices. The production of copper strips has slowed down, and the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has declined, with inventory piling up [3] 2. Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose. The weekly high was 92,910 yuan/ton, the low was 87,520 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 6.16%, and the interval increase was 6.12% [6] 3. Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of December 5, the average spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 85 yuan/ton. The copper premium strengthened due to rising prices and low market arrivals. It is expected that the premium will be suppressed as downstream purchasing interest decreases after continuous price increases [11] 4. London Copper Spread Structure - As of December 5, LME copper rose 5.74% this week, closing at $11,616/ton. The Fed's expectations and the issue of LME cancelled warrants drove up the copper price [16] 5. Copper Concentrate Supply - As of December 5, copper concentrate port inventory was 681,000 tons, up 1.04% week - on - week. Although inventory has been increasing, it is still lower than last year. Global copper concentrate is in short supply, and ore grades are declining. In November 2025, China imported 2.526 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, and from January to November, the import volume was 27.614 million tons, up 8.0% year - on - year [20] 6. Scrap Copper Supply - In October 2025, China's scrap copper imports were about 196,607 tons, up 6.81% month - on - month and 7.35% year - on - year, with Japan being the largest source. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower year - on - year and month - on - month. The advantage of the refined - scrap price difference is not obvious due to weak terminal consumption [25] 7. Smelter Fees - As of December 5, China's spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.03 dollars/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.38 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. The CSPT's 2026 production cut plan due to low processing fees has driven up the Shanghai copper price [29] 8. Refined Copper Supply - In November, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month, a 1.05% increase, and 9.75% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, a 11.76% increase. In December, 4 smelters are under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and from January to November, the import volume was 4.883 million tons, down 4.7% year - on - year [33] 9. Apparent Demand - As of October 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3218 million tons, down 9.25% month - on - month [37] 10. Copper Products - Copper tube enterprises are cautious in production due to rising copper prices. The production of copper strips has slowed down, and the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has declined, with inventory piling up. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, down over 10% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative output was 20.124 million tons, up 5.9% year - on - year [42] 11. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of October, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, up 17.3% year - on - year. The installed capacity of solar power was 1.14 billion kilowatts, up 43.8% year - on - year, and that of wind power was 590 million kilowatts, up 21.4% year - on - year. From January to October, the national power generation equipment had an average utilization of 2,619 hours, 260 hours less than the previous year [46] 12. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to October, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, down 14.7% year - on - year. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, down 6.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, down 9.6% year - on - year [53] 13. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - From November 1 to 30, 2025, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.72 million, up 20% year - on - year and 7% month - on - month. As of November, the cumulative wholesale sales of new - energy vehicles had reached 13.78 million, up 29% year - on - year [57] 14. Copper Inventories in Major Global Exchanges - As of December 5, LME copper inventory increased by 3,125 tons to 162,600 tons, and COMEX copper inventory was 436,900 tons, up 4.33% week - on - week and 372% year - on - year. Global copper inventory is generally increasing, but there is still a shortage in other parts of the world except the US. The sharp increase in LME cancelled warrants has strengthened the market's expectation of overseas demand and supply shortage [62] - On December 4, the cumulative copper inventory in bonded areas in Shanghai and Guangdong was 101,500 tons, with a slight increase. After the SHFE inventory reached a high in mid - November, it decreased with market sentiment. As of December 5, SHFE copper inventory was 30,900 tons, down 12.22% week - on - week [67]
沪铜周报：冠通期货研究报告-20251208
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-08 10:58