地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告：江西篇

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the debt risks of local governments and urban investment enterprises in Jiangxi Province, analyzing the economic, fiscal, and debt situations at the provincial and prefecture - level city levels, as well as the situation of urban investment enterprises [4] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Strength of Jiangxi Province Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Jiangxi is located in the central - southeastern part of China, with superior location, rich natural and tourism resources, and a comprehensive transportation network. In 2024, its economic aggregate ranked in the middle in China, with per capita GDP in the lower - middle level. The second industry is the main driving force for economic growth [5][8] - The province has made achievements in transportation construction, with 209,500 kilometers of highways, 5023.8 kilometers of railway operating mileage, and 128.45 kilometers of urban rail transit mileage in Nanchang by the end of 2024. It also has 7 airports and a well - developed waterway transportation system [6] - Jiangxi has rich tourism, water energy, and mineral resources. It has many world - level and national - level scenic spots and is rich in minerals like copper, tungsten, etc [6][7] - The province's population ranks in the middle in China, with a relatively low urbanization rate of 63.77% in 2024, lower than the national average [7] - In 2024, Jiangxi's GDP was 3.42025 trillion yuan, ranking 15th in China, with a growth rate of 5.1%. The per capita GDP was 75,900 yuan, ranking 19th. In the first half of 2025, the GDP was 1.67196 trillion yuan, with a 5.6% year - on - year increase [8] - The industrial structure has been adjusted. In 2024, the ratio of the three industries was 7.6:40.0:52.4. The second industry was the core engine for economic growth, with a contribution rate of 52.8% to GDP growth [9] Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Jiangxi's general public budget revenue was 306.66 billion yuan, ranking in the middle in China, with a year - on - year increase of 0.2% on a comparable basis. The tax revenue accounted for 63.81%, and the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was 39.84% [17][18] - Affected by the real - estate market downturn, the government - funded revenue in 2024 was 181.39 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease. The superior subsidy revenue accounted for 44.27% of the local comprehensive fiscal resources [18] - In 2024, Jiangxi's local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio were 171.90% and 44.01% respectively, ranking 17th in China [20] Group 3: Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - Level Cities in Jiangxi Province Economic Strength - The development of prefecture - level cities in Jiangxi is uneven. The northern part generally leads, followed by the southern part with Ganzhou as the core, while the eastern and western parts have relatively small economic aggregates [22] - Most cities have a "tertiary - secondary - primary" industrial structure, except for Yingtan. Nanchang has the highest economic aggregate, and the GDP of each city increased in 2024 [30] - Ganzhou has the largest permanent population, and Nanchang has the highest urbanization rate [31] Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation Fiscal Revenue - In 2024, the general public budget revenue of prefecture - level cities varied greatly. Nanchang had the highest revenue and fiscal self - sufficiency rate. The government - funded revenue of most cities decreased, and the superior subsidy revenue was relatively large [33] Debt - By the end of 2024, the government debt balance of each prefecture - level city increased. The debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio of each city increased. Ji'an, Yingtan, and Xinyu had relatively high debt ratios [41] - The province will continue to resolve local government debt risks, accelerate the replacement of existing implicit debts, and prevent new implicit debts [42][44] Group 4: Solvency of Urban Investment Enterprises in Jiangxi Province Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - Urban investment enterprises in Jiangxi that issue bonds are mainly at the prefecture - level and district - county levels. Ganzhou has the largest number of such enterprises. The credit ratings of these enterprises are mainly AA, and high - credit - rated enterprises are concentrated in Nanchang and Ganzhou [45] Bond Issuance - In 2024, the overall bond issuance scale in Jiangxi increased year - on - year, but the net financing scale decreased significantly. Nanchang, Jingdezhen, Pingxiang, and Yichun had net inflows of bond financing, while the rest had net outflows [48][49] - From January to October 2025, Jingdezhen and Fuzhou had net inflows of bond financing for urban investment enterprises, while the rest had net outflows. Shangrao and Nanchang had large - scale net outflows [48][49] Solvency Analysis - As of the end of June 2025, Shangrao, Jingdezhen, and Yichun had the top three increments in the total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises. The cash - to - short - term - debt ratio of these enterprises in each city was generally weak. Nanchang and Ganzhou will face large - scale bond maturities in 2026, with concentrated repayment pressure [52][55] Support and Guarantee Capacity of Fiscal Revenue - In 2024, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive fiscal resources in each prefecture - level city exceeded 300%, with Nanchang, Shangrao, Yingtan, and Pingxiang exceeding 600%, and Ganzhou and Jingdezhen exceeding 500% [58]