铁合金日报-20251208

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 8, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The silicon ferroalloy (SF) main contract closed at 5444, down 0.55%, with an increase of 4446 in positions, while the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5736, down 0.38%, with an increase of 7356 in positions [5]. - For silicon ferroalloy, the spot price on the 8th was stable with a slight weakness, and the supply is expected to decrease again due to increased losses of manufacturers after the November electricity price settlement. The demand for silicon ferroalloy is weakening as steel production continues to decline. Although the cost side has pushed up the price, it will continue to fluctuate at the bottom under demand suppression [5]. - For manganese silicon, the manganese ore spot was generally stable on the 8th, and the manganese silicon spot was also stable with a slight weakness. The supply of manganese silicon continued to decline, and the demand was dragged down by the weakening steel production. The cost side has increased due to the low port inventory of manganese ore and the rising overseas mine quotes. It may rebound in the short - term but will mainly oscillate at the bottom due to future demand pressure [5]. - The trading strategies include: for unilateral trading, it will operate in a bottom - oscillating pattern with cost support but future demand pressure; for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - Futures Market: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5444, down 30 from the previous day and 22 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 414480 (an increase of 10957) and an open interest of 262736 (an increase of 4446). The SM main contract closed at 5736, down 22 from the previous day and 2 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 265067 (an increase of 102578) and an open interest of 271282 (an increase of 7356) [3]. - Spot Market: The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5230, down 20 from the previous day and the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 5200, unchanged; in Qinghai, it was 5250, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 5400, unchanged from the previous day but down 100 from the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5600, unchanged from the previous day but up 200 from the previous week. The spot price of silicon - manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5530, unchanged; in Ningxia, it was 5510, down 10 from the previous day; in Guangxi, it was 5550, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 5680, down 20 from the previous day and the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5700, down 20 from the previous day but up 20 from the previous week [3]. - Basis and Spread: For silicon ferroalloy, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 214, up 10 from the previous day and 2 from the previous week; for manganese silicon, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 206, up 22 from the previous day and 2 from the previous week. The SF - SM spread was - 292, down 8 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [3]. - Raw Materials: The price of Australian manganese ore (Tianjin) was 41.5, unchanged from the previous day but up 1.5 from the previous week; South African semi - carbonate was 34.2, unchanged from the previous day but down 0.1 from the previous week; Gabonese ore was 43.5, unchanged from the previous day but up 1.5 from the previous week. The price of small - sized blue charcoal in Shaanxi was 820, unchanged; in Ningxia, it was 920, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 810, unchanged [3]. Second Part: Market Judgement - Trading Strategies: As mentioned above, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and option strategies [6]. - Important Information: Comilog announced its January 2026 offer price for Gabonese ore to China at $4.7 per ton - degree, up $0.2 from the previous month. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work in 2026 [7]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as the ferroalloy main contract price trend, SF - SM spread, monthly spreads of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, basis of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, spot prices of silicon - manganese, ferroalloy electricity prices, production costs and profits of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon [11][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][23][24][25][26].