Soochow Securities international·2025-12-08 11:09Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, projecting a target price of HKD 23 based on a 2026 average valuation of PE=18x and a target market capitalization of HKD 35.6 billion [8]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from the "Takata integration shadow" to a new phase characterized by "global safety cash cow + intelligent automotive Tier 1 + robotics second curve" [9]. - The automotive safety business is expected to maintain stable revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits over the next three years, supported by the clearing of historical recall and restructuring costs, alongside increasing orders for new energy vehicles [7]. - The company is positioned as a leading global Tier 1 supplier in automotive safety, electronics, and robotics, with a comprehensive product line and platform-based R&D system [9][27]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The company has become one of the few global suppliers capable of providing a complete set of passive safety systems to multinational automakers through acquisitions of KSS and Takata assets, with safety business revenue stabilizing in the hundreds of billions [7]. - The automotive electronics segment focuses on smart cockpits, connected vehicles, ADAS/domain control, and new energy management systems, forming a complete product line and platform-based R&D system [7]. - The company is advancing into robotics, creating integrated solutions for robotic control and collaborating with leading robotics players, which is expected to generate meaningful revenue in 3-5 years [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 626 billion, RMB 670 billion, and RMB 719 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 12%, 7%, and 7% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at RMB 16 billion, RMB 18 billion, and RMB 20 billion, with growth rates of 67%, 12%, and 11% respectively [8]. Business Development Stages - The company has undergone several development stages: 1. Foundation Stage (2004-2010): Focused on local component supply and quality system establishment [10]. 2. Internationalization Stage (2011-2018): Transitioned to a global Tier 1 supplier through acquisitions [11]. 3. Optimization Stage (2019-2024): Focused on smart and electric vehicle trends, optimizing global operations [12]. 4. Re-entrepreneurship Stage (2025-present): Aiming for dual pillars of automotive and robotics Tier 1 development [13]. Market Position - The company ranks 41st among the largest automotive parts suppliers globally, with projected revenue of RMB 559 billion in 2024. It holds a 26.1% market share in China and a 22.9% share globally in passive safety [19][30]. - The revenue structure is highly internationalized, with approximately 25.3% from the Chinese market and 74.7% from overseas markets [21]. Competitive Landscape - The global automotive passive safety market is characterized by a high concentration of suppliers, with the top three companies holding over 90% market share. The company ranks second globally and in China, benefiting from increasing industry consolidation [42][43].