2025年11月进出口数据点评：11月的出口高增速可持续吗？

Export Data - In November 2025, China's exports reached $330.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, significantly higher than the expected 3.0% and the previous month's decline of 1.1%[2][3][4] - The increase in exports is attributed to the fading high base effect and strong overseas demand, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, while the drag from labor-intensive products has lessened[3][4][14][16] Import Data - Imports in November 2025 totaled $218.67 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, up from 1.0% in October[2][18] - The rise in imports is driven by robust export-related intermediate goods demand and a low base effect from the previous year, with significant increases in copper and iron ore imports of 35.3% and 15.9%, respectively[18] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for November 2025 was $111.68 billion, an increase from the previous month's surplus of $90.07 billion[2] Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America saw notable increases, with the EU experiencing a year-on-year growth of 14.8%[5][4] - In contrast, exports to the US declined by 28.6%, indicating ongoing challenges in US-China trade relations[5] Future Outlook - December's export growth may face challenges due to high base effects, but optimism remains for 2026 driven by global fiscal expansion and improved US-China trade relations[3][21] - The expected reduction in tariffs on certain products and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could further support China's exports to the US[21]