生猪劲升，豆粕大跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed trend, with hog prices rising sharply and soybean meal prices falling significantly. The hog market is in a situation of strong supply and demand, and the soybean meal market is under pressure from abundant imports and high inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Hog prices have risen sharply as the year - end approaches, with the hog market entering a period of strong supply and demand. The demand for sausage - making in the north and bacon - curing in the south is increasing, and hog futures prices have rebounded strongly from low levels and may continue to strengthen. Soybean meal prices have fallen significantly due to abundant imported soybeans, high crushing volumes, and a rebound in soybean meal inventory to over one million tons, and its futures prices have entered a downward trend [1]. 3.2. Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1. Hogs - Focus: The main contract 2603 of hogs has risen sharply, boosted by improved demand. Supply is abundant in December as large - scale pig enterprises increase their出栏. Demand has increased with the arrival of winter, and the开工 rate of slaughtering enterprises has rebounded. The futures price has broken through the 20 - day moving average and entered an upward trend. The strategy is to close short positions and hold light long positions [2]. 3.2.2. Soybean Meal - Focus: The main contract 2605 of soybean meal has fallen significantly due to abundant imported soybeans and high inventory pressure. In November, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans, a 13.4% year - on - year increase. The total soybean imports in the first 11 months reached 103.79 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year increase. The inventory has rebounded to about 1.2 million tons. The futures price has broken through the moving average system and entered a downward trend. The strategy is to continue to look for resistance levels to short lightly [3]. 3.2.3. Palm Oil - Focus: The main contract 2605 of Dalian palm oil has oscillated and declined. The market is cautious before the release of the MPOB report, and some long positions have been liquidated. The futures price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions, conduct short - term trading, and wait for important data to enter trend positions [5]. 3.2.4. Red Dates - Focus: The main contract 2605 of red dates has first risen and then declined, with limited rebound. The peak consumption season is in conflict with high supply and inventory, leading to large price fluctuations. The acquisition progress in the main production areas of Xinjiang is about 90%, and the price of new dates has stabilized. However, the concentrated listing of new dates and high inventory of old dates limit the rebound space. The strategy is short - term trading [8]. 3.2.5. Apples - Focus: The main contract 2605 of apples has oscillated and declined from a high position. The inventory in production areas is relatively low, but the market trading speed is slow, and the sales volume is average. Citrus competing fruits also impact apple consumption. The futures price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [9][11]. 3.2.6. Eggs - Focus: The main contract 2601 of eggs has rebounded from a low position as the market anticipates improved demand at the end of the year. The egg - laying hen inventory is still high, but the market expects better demand. The latest data shows a decline in the number of old hens sold. The futures price has rebounded and oscillated, standing above the 5 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading [12]. 3.2.7. Sugar - Focus: The main contract 2601 of Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded from a low position due to technical correction and short - covering. However, the supply pressure of new sugar is still large as the sugar - cane crushing progress in Guangxi and Yunnan continues, with 50 sugar mills in operation. The futures price is still below the moving averages, and the downward trend has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions [14]. 3.2.8. Cotton - Focus: The main contract 2601 of cotton has oscillated and closed up, with high - level operation. The sales rate of Xinjiang cotton is high, and the demand has significantly increased. The textile enterprises in Xinjiang have a high operating rate, and the orders are sufficient. The transportation cost of cotton has increased. The market confidence of the textile industry has been boosted. The futures price has recovered the 10 - day moving average, and the strategy is to hold long positions [17]. 3.2.9. Peanuts - Focus: The main contract 2603 of peanuts has fallen significantly, with a weakening trend. The supply in various production areas is limited, and the demand is also weak. Food factories have only rigid demand, and the trading activity in the domestic market is low. Oil mills have a low operating rate, strictly control quality, and continue to lower purchase prices. The futures price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average, and the strategy is to short lightly [18][20].