天富期货碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报-20251208

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report Core View The report analyzes the market trends, core logics, technical aspects, and provides strategy suggestions for three commodities: lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon futures. It also points out the influencing factors and potential driving forces for each commodity [1][3][9]. 3. Key Points by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: The lithium carbonate futures showed a strong performance today. The main 2605 contract rose 2.91% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 94,840 yuan/ton [1]. - Core Logic: Affected by news, the price increased significantly. Nigeria's 19 northern states plan to suspend mining activities for six months. China imported about 400,000 tons of lithium ore from Nigeria in the first half of this year, corresponding to about 50,000 tons of equity lithium carbonate. Fundamentally, lithium carbonate continued the de - stocking pattern, and the apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month [1]. - Technical Analysis: The overall open interest of lithium carbonate futures increased slightly today, still controlled by bulls, with a certain reduction of positions at the end of the session. There was an entry opportunity at 10:05 with the "Three - line Resonance Method" and increased trading volume, offering a 1:2 profit - loss ratio. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a green - line, red - band, green - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a weak green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 96,940 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation should be mainly to go long on dips. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [1]. Polysilicon - Market Trend: The polysilicon futures showed a weak performance today. The 2605 contract fell 0.16% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 53,065 yuan/ton [3]. - Core Logic: On December 5, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to polysilicon futures registered brands, adding "Jingnuo" and "Orient Hope" as registered brands. However, today's polysilicon market decline was less than expected, and it showed a relatively strong trend after a gap - down opening. Fundamentally, there is some seasonal production reduction on the supply side, but the inventory accumulation pattern continues. The downstream industry chain demand is weak, production schedules have declined, and the prices of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells have also decreased to some extent [3][6]. - Technical Analysis: The overall open interest of polysilicon futures decreased slightly today, with a gradual shift of positions. The 05 contract is still controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle of the polysilicon 2605 contract is a red - line, red - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a weak green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 55,045 yuan/ton [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: The contradiction between the strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and the weak spot market with oversupply remains unchanged. Polysilicon may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [6]. Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures showed a weak performance today, following the polysilicon trend. The main 2601 contract fell 1.48% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,675 yuan/ton [9]. - Core Logic: It opened with a gap down following the polysilicon trend, mainly affected by market sentiment. The supply - demand weakness pattern of industrial silicon continues, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high, with three consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation. Specifically, the production in the southwest region during the dry season has continuously decreased to the lowest level this year, while the northern large - scale manufacturers in the eastern region have sporadically increased production and plan to gradually increase to full - load operation. The downstream weakness has not changed significantly, with all facing production reduction expectations and limited restocking [9]. - Technical Analysis: The overall open interest of industrial silicon futures increased significantly today, still controlled by bears. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2601 contract has changed to a red - line, red - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a weak green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 9,145 yuan/ton [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is still regarded as weak, mainly affected by policies and news. Pay attention to short - term emotional fluctuations. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [9].