原油继续震荡等待地缘方向，能化中仅PX、PTA暂维持偏多思路

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors being the main driver in December. There is a short - term bullish outlook, but trading is difficult due to geopolitical uncertainties. A mid - term shorting opportunity is expected after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - Among chemical products, PX and PTA can maintain a bullish view for now, while the bullish view on methanol is removed. Other products such as styrene, rubber, synthetic rubber, etc., each have their own supply - demand and technical characteristics, with corresponding trading suggestions [1][6][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Logic: Supply - demand and macro - factors have a weak impact on the market. The mid - term expectation of supply surplus remains, but there is short - term trading of supply - demand changes. Geopolitical factors are increasing, and there is a pessimistic view on the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. There may be a pulse - like upward movement due to the risk escalation in the Caribbean [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply has decreased due to increased maintenance, and two consecutive weeks of inventory reduction have improved short - term supply - demand. However, mid - term inventory pressure is high, and there may be a risk of inventory overstocking [6]. - Technical Analysis: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait for an opportunity to try long after a pull - back without breaking the support [6]. Rubber - Logic: There are no major short - term contradictions. Tire demand has limited growth, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season. There is no clear upward or downward driving force, so it is treated with a volatile view [9]. - Technical Analysis: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The core of synthetic rubber lies in the supply - demand of raw material butadiene. Short - term supply - demand has improved, but there is still mid - term inventory pressure [14]. - Technical Analysis: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The upward driving force has weakened, but the supply - demand situation is still relatively strong in the chemical industry, and attention should be paid to the cost - end impact of crude oil [17]. - Technical Analysis: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold long positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 6700 [17]. PTA - Logic: The upward driving force has weakened, but short - term supply - demand pressure is not significant. Attention should be paid to cost - end driving [20]. - Technical Analysis: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold long positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 4620 (01 contract) [20]. PP - Logic: Supply is at a high level and demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [22]. - Technical Analysis: A short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [22]. Methanol - Logic: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and demand is weak. Although the port inventory has decreased, the rate of decrease has slowed down, and there is high - level inventory pressure. The previous upward driving force has ended, and the short - term bullish view is removed [23]. - Technical Analysis: A mid - term downward and short - term volatile structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23]. PVC - Logic: Future maintenance plans are limited, and production is at a high level. There are expectations of production reduction due to profit decline, but demand is weak, and inventory is high. There is no upward driving force, and short - selling has limited value [26]. - Technical Analysis: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [26]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Domestic production is at a high level, and new production capacity has increased supply pressure. Demand from downstream polyester is stable, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [29]. - Technical Analysis: A mid - term and short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [29]. Plastic - Logic: Supply is at a high level and demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - Technical Analysis: A mid - term and short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [30]. Soda Ash - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue, and the demand from downstream glass has decreased. Although the downward driving force remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions has decreased [33]. - Technical Analysis: A downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit reference of 1155 [33]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Supply is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. Inventory has reached a new high, and the downward driving force remains, but there is limited space for short - selling [36]. - Technical Analysis: A downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [36].