HTSC·2025-12-08 13:09Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [7] Core Insights - The lithium industry is experiencing strong near-term demand, with significant price increases for lithium carbonate driven by supply disruptions and robust battery demand. However, there are considerable divergences in long-term demand forecasts, particularly for 2026 and 2027 [1][3][30] - The report anticipates a supply increase of 32.3% in 2026 and 17.1% in 2027, primarily from new projects in domestic salt lakes and increased production from African and Australian mines [2][10] - The demand forecast for 2026 estimates a total lithium carbonate demand of approximately 207.2 million tons LCE, with a year-on-year growth of 25.2% [25][30] - The supply-demand balance is expected to show a slight surplus in 2026 but may shift to a shortage in 2027 due to declining supply growth and sustained high demand [4][30] Supply Summary - The global lithium resource supply is projected to be 163.4 million tons in 2025, 216.2 million tons in 2026, and 253.2 million tons in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.3%, 32.3%, and 17.1% respectively [2][12][31] - Supply disruptions, particularly from the Jiangxi mine, have impacted the 2025 supply growth, which is expected to decline to 22.3% from 28.6% in 2024 [10][11] Demand Summary - The report highlights a significant divergence in demand growth expectations for 2026, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a 75% increase in energy storage installations and a 60% penetration rate for new energy vehicles [3][26] - The total demand range for lithium carbonate in 2026 is estimated between 197.5 million tons and 216.8 million tons LCE, reflecting a nearly 20 million tons variance based on different growth assumptions [26][30] Balance Summary - The supply-demand balance for 2025 is projected to show a shortage of approximately 2.0 million tons, while 2026 is expected to have a surplus of 9.1 million tons [4][30] - The report indicates that the lithium market may face a persistent shortage starting in 2027 due to reduced supply growth and high demand [4][30] Price Summary - The report estimates that the fundamental price for lithium carbonate in 2026 will be in the range of 80,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton, with potential upward pressure on prices in the second half of 2026 due to anticipated shortages [5][34] - If a sustained shortage occurs, prices could rise to 120,000 yuan per ton [5][34]