2026年宏观经济与政策展望：势启新章处：破局与再平衡

Economic Growth Projections - The economic growth target for 2026 is set at around 5%, with an expected actual growth rate of approximately 4.9%[3] - Nominal GDP growth is projected to rise to about 4.2%[3] - Manufacturing investment growth is anticipated to reach around 5.2%, driven by high-end and intelligent upgrades[3] Investment and Infrastructure - Broad infrastructure investment growth is expected to be around 6%, supported by major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan"[3] - Real estate investment decline is projected to narrow to approximately -10% due to improved supply-demand dynamics[3] Consumption and Prices - Consumer spending is expected to increase, with retail sales growth projected at around 5%[3] - CPI is forecasted to recover moderately to 0.5%, while PPI is expected to remain between -1% and 0%[3] Policy and Fiscal Measures - The budget deficit ratio may exceed 4%, with new special bond limits around 4.5 trillion yuan[3] - Monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential small rate cuts of about 25 basis points and interest rate reductions of approximately 10 basis points[3] Global Economic Context - The U.S. job market is cooling, and inflation pressures are manageable, but uncertainties remain regarding future interest rate paths[3] - Emerging markets may see marginal economic slowdown in 2026, with internal performance continuing to diverge[3] Asset Allocation Strategies - Overweight positions are recommended in U.S. equities and gold, benefiting from liquidity easing and fiscal expansion[3] - Underweight positions in oil are suggested due to high inventory levels and weak demand[3] Risks - Risks include lower-than-expected domestic economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and potential overseas recession exceeding expectations[3]