有色金属日报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, showing a bullish tendency but with limited operability on the market [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Tin: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and related chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [1][2][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Metals Copper - On Monday, SHFE copper increased in position and continued to rise. The spot price followed the increase. The premium of Shanghai copper and Guangdong copper changed, and the premium of Yangshan copper expanded. The refined - scrap price difference converged rapidly. The social inventory increased slightly over the weekend. There is a probability that the upward trend of SHFE copper will pause this week. If certain conditions are met, the copper price at a record high may回调. Long positions can be held based on the MA5 moving average. If there is strong position volume cooperation, the upward trend of SHFE copper may expand to 95,000 - 97,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Today, SHFE aluminum first declined and then rose in a high - level shock. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China expanded. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was basically flat compared with last Thursday. Non - ferrous metals are still the focus of funds. The upward trend of aluminum price is oscillating upward, but the short - term fundamental contradiction is limited. It is not advisable to chase the rise. The price of cast aluminum alloy has limited follow - up increase, and attention should be paid to the possible narrowing space at the end of the year. The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and it is mainly in a weak operation [2] Zinc - The expectation of domestic smelter production cuts is strong, and the expectation of overseas smelter production increase in the fourth quarter is mediocre. The supply - side constraint of zinc ingots is strengthening, supporting the upward movement of the disk. The U.S. employment data is weak, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December is strong. Zinc is not considered for short - selling allocation. The export window of zinc ingots is open, and SHFE zinc is expected to test the annual line and may even break through it [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The decline of SHFE nickel accelerated, and the market trading was active with increasing positions. The stainless - steel market was sluggish. The mainstream stainless - steel mills cancelled the price limit and then lowered the price. The supply side actively cut prices to sell goods, but the trading volume was cold. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel changed. The bullish themes of SHFE nickel are exhausted, and the nickel price is in a weak operation with a downward - shifting center of gravity [4] Tin - The short - term two - way fluctuation range of SHFE tin is large. The MA5 moving average can be used as the boundary of strength. The supply - loss themes and actual supply constraints in 2025 are the core basis for raising the average tin price. In 2026, especially after the Spring Festival peak season, there is a high probability of a supply - side turning point, and the recovery speed is faster than demand. The social inventory of SMM tin increased. The LME 0 - 3 month spot premium decreased. The visible inventory in the two markets is neutral. Attention should be paid to the high - level risk, and a hedging strategy is still needed for medium - long - term supply - demand allocation. It is inclined that the tin price is approaching the adjustment time point [4] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, and the market trading was active. The downstream battery factory orders increased due to the continuous progress of pure - electric heavy - truck projects, the strong performance of the traditional vehicle sales peak season, and the short supply of energy - storage batteries. Some phosphoric - iron - lithium enterprises promoted price increases, but the increase amount was low. The total market inventory decreased. The price of Australian ore strengthened again. The sustainability of actual inventory and policy increments are the focus of the market, and it is regarded as a short - term strong - side fluctuation [5] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the key support level at the lower edge of the range. From the supply side, the marginal reduction effect of the dry - season production cuts in the southwest region is expected to weaken after December, and the supply pressure may gradually stabilize. From the demand side, both the silicone and polysilicon industries face demand contraction pressure in December. The inventory reduction of industrial silicon at the end of the year is still under pressure. In the short term, the orange weather warning and safety - production notice in Xinjiang may support the market sentiment, but if the actual production cuts of local factories are limited, the price may further decline [5] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened. On the supply side, the production - cut intensity of upstream enterprises has not met market expectations, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the silicon - wafer production plan in December decreased by 16% month - on - month. The polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream's willingness to accept the spot purchase price of polysilicon decreased. The current spot market is mainly supported by leading enterprises' price - holding. The announcement of new brands of polysilicon by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange last Friday had a negative impact on the market, and subsequent warehouse - receipt generation needs to be tracked [6]