可选消费W49周度趋势解析：海外市场风险偏好度回升，明年消费政策托底尚未落地A/H市场景气度回落-20251208

Market Overview - Overseas market risk appetite has rebounded, while A/H market sentiment has declined as supportive consumption policies for next year have yet to materialize[1] - Weekly performance of sectors shows overseas sportswear leading with a 2.9% increase, followed by overseas cosmetics at 2.0%[11] - Year-to-date performance highlights gold and jewelry sector leading with a 138.2% increase, while overseas sportswear has declined by 13.8%[11] Sector Performance - The overseas sportswear sector's expected PE for 2025 is 31.1 times, which is 58% of the past five-year average[14] - The domestic sportswear sector's expected PE for 2025 is 14.2 times, representing 74% of the past five-year average[14] - The gold and jewelry sector's expected PE for 2025 is 23.7 times, which is 45% of the past five-year average[14] Key Stock Ratings - Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, and Haier Smart Home are rated as "Outperform"[1] - Lulu Lemon is rated as "Neutral," while other stocks like Anta Sports and Gree Electric are also rated "Outperform"[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market has surged, maintaining high expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve[6] - The core CPI data for September was reported at 2.8%, the highest since April, aligning with market expectations[6] Risks - Potential risks include changes in consumer and economic environments, intensified market competition, and tariff risks[10]