美元降息预期升温风险资产涨势延续：大类资产运行周报（20251201-20251205）-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From December 1st to December 5th, the important data released by the US boosted the expectation of a US dollar interest rate cut. The Russia-Ukraine negotiations showed no significant progress. The US dollar index continued to decline weekly. Stocks and commodities rose, while the bond market declined. Overall, in US dollar terms, commodities > stocks > bonds [4][7]. - In China, the November RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 49.9, falling into the contraction range, and the November RatingDog service industry PMI was 52.1. Stocks and commodities rose, while the bond market declined. Overall, commodities > stocks > bonds [4][21]. - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in December, and the market's focus will shift to the operation of the US dollar monetary policy next year. Attention should be paid to the overall performance of the Fed's interest rate - setting meeting this week [4][30]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Global Large - scale Asset Performance Global Stock Market Overview - From December 1st to December 5th, the market expected a high probability of a US dollar interest rate cut in December. Global major stock markets generally rose. The Asia - Pacific region led the gains, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index declined weekly [9]. - Specific stock market performance data for different regions are provided, such as the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rising 1.10% weekly, the South Korea Composite Index rising 4.42% weekly, etc. [12][13][14] Global Bond Market Overview - From December 1st to December 5th, the US November ADP employment decreased by 32,000. The September core PCE price index year - on - year met market expectations. Medium - and long - term US Treasury yields rose, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 12BP weekly to 4.14%. The bond market declined weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - From December 1st to December 5th, the US November ISM manufacturing index was 48.2, lower than expected and the previous value, and the November ISM service industry index was 52, better than expected and the previous value. The Bank of Japan governor signaled a possible interest rate hike, and the US dollar index declined weekly. Most major non - US currencies against the US dollar rose, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated. The US dollar index fell 0.46% weekly [17]. Global Commodity Market Overview - The slow progress of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations led to a weekly rise in international oil prices. Supply - side disturbances drove up international copper and silver prices significantly. Major agricultural product prices declined, and non - ferrous metal prices generally rose [18]. Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance Domestic Stock Market Overview - During the domestic policy window period, the market sentiment was positive. A - share major broad - based indexes generally rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. The growth style performed better. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals and communications led the gains, while real estate and media performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% weekly [22]. Domestic Bond Market Overview - From December 1st to December 5th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 84.8 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable overall. The bond market was weak weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [24]. Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the chemical industry performed poorly [26]. Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in December, and the market's focus will shift to the operation of the US dollar monetary policy next year. Attention should be paid to the overall performance of the Fed's interest rate - setting meeting this week [30].