宏观周报（12月第1周）：美联储12月降息预期继续强化-20251208

Market Overview - The market experienced a low volatility increase with an average trading volume of 1,696.2 billion CNY, a decrease of 40.7 billion CNY week-on-week[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.26% and the ChiNext Index by 1.86%[2] - The PMI for November rebounded by 0.2 percentage points, aligning with seasonal trends but still significantly lower than expected[2] Fixed Income - The bond market saw an overall increase in yields, with the 30-year government bond yield rising significantly[2] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation totaling 663.8 billion CNY, with a net withdrawal of 848 billion CNY[2] - The market anticipates a cautious monetary policy outlook, limiting bullish sentiment in the bond market[2] Overseas Market Dynamics - U.S. stock markets rose, with the Dow Jones up by 0.5% and the S&P 500 by 0.31%[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 4.14%, while the 2-year yield rose by 12 basis points to 3.56%[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.46%, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, significantly below the expected increase of 10,000[2] - The core PCE index for September fell to 2.8%, below the expected 2.9%, indicating weaker inflation pressures[2] - Michigan University's one-year inflation expectation dropped from 4.5% to 4.1%, boosting market risk appetite[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include weaker-than-expected economic fundamentals and the possibility that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may not meet market expectations[2]