债券研究周报：固收买卖方怎么看待当前债市点位的配置价值？-20251208

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a bond research weekly report released on December 8, 2025, focusing on the views of bond market sellers and buyers on the current bond market configuration value [1] - It solves the core problems of the latest week's changes in the views and sentiments of bond market sellers and buyers [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - From December 2nd to December 8th, the sentiment of bond market sellers continued to decline, the degree of divergence continued to decrease, and the buyer sentiment index declined again. The recent weak bond market led to continued pressure on the sentiment side, and institutions were waiting for important December meetings and the implementation of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations [3] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Seller Market Sentiment - Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index: From December 2nd to December 8th, it continued to decline. The unweighted index was 0.08, a decrease of 0.32 compared to November 25th - December 1st. Most market views turned neutral. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 4 bullish, 21 neutral, and 1 bearish. 15% of institutions are bullish, believing that interest rates have reached the upper limit of the acceptable range, monetary policy is expected to be loose, and risk appetite may decline; 81% are neutral, thinking that the "weak recovery" of the economy restricts the upward movement of interest rates, there is still allocation demand under the asset shortage pattern, but the market is worried about the "good start" and rising inflation, and there is no clear single main line to drive interest rates to break through trendily; 4% are bearish, suggesting that there may be a lack of incremental funds in December, and in years similar to 2025, yields rose in December [4][11] 4.2 Buyer Market Sentiment - Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index: From December 2nd to December 8th, it declined again. The unweighted sentiment index was 0.08, lower than that of November 25th - December 1st. Currently, institutions generally still hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 5 bullish, 16 neutral, and 3 bearish. 21% of institutions are bullish, believing that panic has been released, the market is in an oversold state, creating conditions for a technical rebound, and the fundamentals and policy environment have not changed fundamentally; 67% are neutral, thinking that the tug - of - war between long and short factors has led to bond yields oscillating within a range, with mainly structural opportunities; 12% are bearish, suggesting that the expectation of interest rate cuts has failed, the loose capital supply has limited support, yields are "more likely to rise than fall", and even if there is a technical rebound, it may be "weak" [5][12]