12月政治局会议点评：12月政治局会议的五大关注点

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Economic development targets may be relaxed, and the marginal expansion of macro policies may be limited. The equity market is expected to continue its slow - bull trend in 2026. The bond market may see a short - term boost in confidence but sentiment remains weak. It is advisable to test the waters with a small position and retreat after capturing a 1 - 2bp small band [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Economic and Social Development Goals and Quality - Quantity Balance - The main economic and social development goals in 2025 will be achieved, marking a successful end to the "14th Five - Year Plan". For 2026, the focus is on the balance between quality improvement and reasonable quantity growth. The economic growth target is likely to be set around 5%, but there is a possibility of relaxation. Key structural reforms such as new - quality productivity and expanding domestic demand will be the focus of economic work [2][13][15]. 2. Coordinating Internal and External Development and Emphasizing Domestic Demand - The meeting called for better coordination of domestic economic work and international trade struggles, and development and security. In 2025, China's exports showed resilience but faced uncertainties. In 2026, the core of domestic demand expansion may be consumption, and unblocking consumption circulation through increasing wealth income may be crucial [3][16][17]. 3. Macro Policy Tone and Expansion - The macro policy tone remains unchanged, with a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. However, the marginal expansion of policies may be limited, with a focus on enhancing the effectiveness of existing policies rather than large - scale incremental policy implementation [4][19][20]. 4. Promoting Supply Optimization - On the demand side, consumption is likely the main driver for expanding domestic demand. On the supply side, product structure upgrading is the core direction, and the key is to improve efficiency and revitalize the large - scale stock [5][21][23]. 5. Real Estate and Stock Markets - The meeting did not mention real estate and stock market arrangements. Real estate policies may continue to focus on risk prevention, and incremental policies may be triggered by specific events or data. The equity market is expected to continue its slow - bull trend in 2026, and the bond market may see a short - term sentiment boost but the adjustment trend is hard to reverse. A small - position trial with a 1 - 2bp band - trading strategy is recommended [6][24].