房地产周报20251208：二手房销售降幅扩大，深圳放宽公积金提取-20251208

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "in line with the market" [4][41]. Core Insights - The new housing sales remain sluggish, and the decline in second-hand housing sales has widened, indicating significant downward pressure on both new and second-hand housing markets. A full recovery of market confidence will take time. The probability of policy interventions is increasing as the market continues to experience declines in both volume and price [6][8]. - Cumulative sales area of new homes in 42 cities from January 1 to December 6 shows a year-on-year growth rate of -5.5%, improving slightly from -7.0% previously. The cumulative sales area for the month shows a year-on-year growth rate of -34.2%, compared to -36.1% last month [6]. - Cumulative sales area of second-hand homes in 20 cities shows a year-on-year growth rate of 6.0%, down from 7.8% previously. The cumulative sales area for the month shows a year-on-year growth rate of -41.5%, compared to -19.4% last month [6]. - In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the cumulative sales area of new homes shows significant declines, with Shenzhen experiencing a staggering -80.6% year-on-year growth rate for the month [7][8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The cumulative sales area of new and second-hand homes across 19 cities shows a year-on-year growth rate of -3.2%, worsening from -2.1% previously. The monthly cumulative sales area shows a year-on-year growth rate of -40.0%, compared to -27.9% last month [6]. - Specific cities report varying performance, with Beijing at -13.7%, Shanghai at -8.5%, and Shenzhen at -34.0% for new homes, while second-hand homes in these cities show mixed results [7]. Policy Developments - On December 5, Shenzhen further relaxed housing provident fund withdrawal regulations, allowing for more flexible use of funds for home purchases and tax payments, which is expected to support market activity [8][39]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the anticipated policy easing due to further declines in the fundamentals may lead to valuation recovery in the short term. Long-term focus should be on leading companies with core city resources and real estate operational capabilities [8].