宏观经济点评：12月政治局会议学习：提质增效，科技突围

Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8, 2025, expressed satisfaction with the achievements of the 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating a likely completion of the 5% economic growth target for 2025[2] - The economic growth target for 2026 is expected to be slightly below 5%, with a focus on structural adjustments and technological breakthroughs[3] - The potential economic growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan is estimated to be around 4.8%-5.0%, aligning with the anticipated target for 2026[3] Policy Direction - Emphasis on integrating existing and new policies to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, indicating a moderate urgency for counter-cyclical policies[4] - The meeting highlighted the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2026[5] - The broad fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is estimated to be approximately 8.1%, considering special refinancing bonds[5] Domestic Demand and Industry Focus - Technological breakthroughs are prioritized, with a focus on nurturing new growth drivers and enhancing traditional industries[6] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and improving livelihoods are expected to benefit service and mass consumption sectors[7] - Structural support measures are anticipated to enhance consumption in rural and lower-tier cities, addressing income distribution and social security[7]