宏观经济专题：美联储主席换届交易指南

Group 1: Federal Reserve Structure and Function - The Federal Reserve System consists of three key entities: the Board of Governors, 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for monetary policy formulation[2] - The FOMC has 12 voting members, including 7 governors from the Board, the New York Fed President, and 4 rotating regional Fed Presidents, meeting 8 times a year to vote on monetary policy changes[2] Group 2: Trump's Influence on the Federal Reserve - With Powell's retirement, Trump is expected to nominate two new governors in 2026, potentially increasing his influence to 4 out of 7 governors, exceeding 50% of the Board[3] - The selection of a new Fed Chair will require a balance of loyalty to Trump and market trust, complicating the nomination process[3] Group 3: Challenges for the New Fed Chair - The new Fed Chair will face challenges in balancing political pressure from Trump with the Fed's independence, especially in a high inflation and weakening labor market context[4] - The new Chair's influence in 2026 may be limited as they will need time to establish authority and navigate existing policies[4] Group 4: Impact on Asset Prices - The impact of the Fed Chair transition on asset prices will vary by scenario, with short-term effects on long-term Treasury yields likely minimal, depending more on economic conditions[5] - Long-term effects on the dollar and stock market will depend on the new Chair's control over the Fed and potential policy reforms[5]