港股、海外周观察：若美联储鹰派降息会如何？

Group 1 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is currently in a left-side phase, and a rebound is still awaited, although the current position is attractive for medium to long-term allocation [1] - The market anticipates a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, but a hawkish cut may limit the rebound potential of Hong Kong stocks [1] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to influence market sentiment; if the outcomes exceed expectations, a market rebound could occur [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is seen as having allocation significance, with AI technology leaders currently valued reasonably, which could lead to a notable rebound if new catalysts emerge [1] - The report warns of potential risks from the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on December 19, which could trigger carry trade unwinding and indirectly affect Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2 - In the U.S. stock market, the Nasdaq led gains with a 0.9% increase, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rose by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, amidst a backdrop of mixed macroeconomic fundamentals [2] - The services PMI in the U.S. rose to 52.6 in November, indicating the fastest expansion in nine months, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2, below market expectations [2][3] - The report highlights a consensus for a cautious rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction in December, influenced by economic signals [3] - The report notes that the S&P 500 market breadth has improved to 61%, indicating a healthy upward trend driven by economic fundamentals and corporate earnings resilience [5][22] Group 3 - The report indicates that global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $33.793 billion, with the U.S. stock ETFs receiving the most significant inflow of $24.28 billion [6][34] - The technology sector saw the highest net inflow among industry categories, while the consumer staples sector experienced the most significant outflow [37] - The report emphasizes that the U.S. economy is expected to grow robustly due to macro policy easing, including interest rate cuts and regulatory relaxations, alongside increasing investments in artificial intelligence [5]