——流动性和机构行为周度观察：当前收短放长不等同于负债成本提升-20251209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current "shortening receipt and lengthening issuance" by the central bank does not necessarily mean an increase in liability costs. The central bank's "shortening receipt and lengthening issuance" in terms of quantity is more significant, and the large - scale long - end issuance is more effective in alleviating the liability pressure of financial institutions, especially banks [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Funds - In December 2025, the central bank conducted a 3 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operation of 100 billion yuan at the same volume. From December 1st - 5th, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 84.8 billion yuan, and from December 8th - 12th, 66.38 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature. In November, the central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds was 5 billion yuan [6]. - From December 1st - 5th, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.30% and 1.36% respectively, down 1.2 basis points and 2.3 basis points compared with November 24th - 28th. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.44% and 1.49% respectively, down 1.9 basis points and 3.9 basis points compared with November 24th - 28th [6]. - From December 1st - 7th, the net government bond payment was about 18.66 billion yuan, about 14.23 billion yuan less than November 24th - 30th. From December 8th - 14th, the net government bond payment is expected to be - 79.52 billion yuan [7]. 2. Negotiable Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - As of December 5th, 2025, the maturity yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.5793% and 1.6150% respectively, up 13.4 basis points and 4.0 basis points compared with November 28th. The 1 - year NCD maturity yield was 1.6550%, up 1.5 basis points compared with November 28th [8]. - From December 1st - 7th, the net financing of NCDs was about 4.71 billion yuan. From December 8th - 14th, the expected maturity repayment amount of NCDs is 106.24 billion yuan, with a significant increase in the pressure of maturity renewal [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - From December 1st - 5th, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.56%, up from 107.32% in November 24th - 28th [9]. - On December 5th, 2025, the median duration of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 4.47 years, a weekly increase of 0.79 years, at the 84.1% quantile since early 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 1.80 years, a weekly increase of 0.24 years, at the 51.2% quantile since early 2022 [9].