中国期货每日简报-20251209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content Core Viewpoints - On December 8, equity index futures rose while long - dated CGB futures declined; commodity futures had mixed performance, with coking coal and coke leading the declines [2][9][11] - Gold and silver are expected to maintain a range - bound upward trend in December. Copper prices will also maintain a range - bound and upward trend in the medium to long term [15][17][21] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On December 8, in China's financial futures, IC rose 1.0%, IM rose 0.9%, and TL fell 0.3%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Live Hog (up 2.3% with 4.0% month - on - month increase in open interest), LSFO (up 2.2% with 0.7% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and Silver (up 2.1% with 3.7% month - on - month drop in open interest). The top three decliners were Coking Coal (down 6.1% with 5.1% month - on - month rise in open interest), Coke (down 5.8% with 5.8% month - on - month increase in open interest), and Offset Paper (down 2.8% with 5.2% month - on - month growth in open interest) [9][10][11] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Gold, Silver - On December 8, Gold rose 0.1% to 985.7 yuan/g, and Silver rose 2.1% to 13706 yuan/kg. In December, gold is expected to continue a range - bound upward trend. The December Fed meeting won't boost dovish expectations, but post - meeting pullback is likely to be limited. Liquidity easing remains key, and silver - led gains support gold prices. Silver is resilient short - term, with post - meeting pullback risks, but December is favorable for upward range - trading. Long - term, dollar credit contraction drives gains [15][16][17] 1.2.2 Copper - On December 8, Copper rose 1.5% to 92970 yuan/ton. Rising market expectations for a December Fed rate cut and a pullback in the U.S. dollar index underpinned copper prices. Ore supply disruptions and production cuts will likely push down ore treatment charges, and refined copper supply will contract. LME canceled warrants surged, and there are potential short - squeeze risks. Demand is lackluster, but strong supply - demand tightness expectations persist, so copper prices will maintain a range - bound and upward trend in the medium to long term [20][21][22] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On December 8, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study 2026 economic work and review the Regulations on the CPC's Leadership over the Comprehensive Law - Based Governance of the Country. Next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability, continue proactive fiscal and moderately accommodative monetary policies, and enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness [25] 2.2 Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, the national futures market's cumulative trading volume was 8,116.71 million contracts, a 14.74% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative trading turnover reached 675.45 trillion yuan, up 20.19% from the same period last year [26]