尼日利亚锂矿政策调整，碳酸锂再度领涨新能源金属

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, Nigeria's adjustment of lithium ore production policy has led to supply concerns, supporting the price of lithium carbonate. Polysilicon prices have fallen due to the increase in registered brands. Overall, lithium carbonate has led the rise in new energy metals again. In the long term, the supply side of silicon, especially polysilicon, has a strong contraction expectation, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still on the rise, but the demand expectation is also increasing, and the expected surplus of supply - demand is narrowing. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [3]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the influence of northern weather, and the silicon price will continue to fluctuate. For polysilicon, the addition of new delivery brands on the exchange has led to a short - term decline in the price. For lithium carbonate, the weakening growth rate of new energy vehicle retail sales may suppress the short - term price [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - View: Pay attention to the influence of northern weather, and the silicon price will continue to fluctuate [8]. - Info: As of November 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 402,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The cumulative production from January to November was 3.871 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. In October, the export of industrial silicon was 45,073 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.8%. The cumulative export from January to October 2025 was 607,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The spot price has dropped slightly, and the inventory has increased. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 12.6GW, a month - on - month increase of 30.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.3%. On December 6, Xinjiang launched a heavy pollution weather orange warning [8]. - Logic: The sharp decline in coal prices has weakened the cost support, causing the silicon price to fall. The supply in the southwest is decreasing due to the dry season, and the northwest supply has slight fluctuations. The demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon industries is decreasing, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The inventory is under pressure, but the relatively low level of warehouse receipts provides some support [8]. Polysilicon - View: The addition of new delivery brands on the exchange has led to a short - term decline in the price of polysilicon, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. - Info: The transaction price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts has increased. In October, the export volume of polysilicon decreased by 58% year - on - year, and the import volume decreased by 39.1% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the domestic newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association refuted false rumors, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added two new registered brands for polysilicon futures [9][10]. - Logic: The addition of new registered brands may increase the number of registered warehouse receipts, leading to a short - term decline in the near - month contract price. The production capacity in the southwest is decreasing in the dry season. The demand has weakened since November, and the downstream silicon wafer price has also fallen. However, the supply is also shrinking in the dry season, and there is still an expectation of anti - involution policy. So, the price is expected to fluctuate widely [10][11]. Lithium Carbonate - View: The weakening growth rate of new energy vehicle retail sales may suppress the short - term price, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12][13]. - Info: On December 8, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.91% to 94,840 yuan/ton, and the total position increased. The spot price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, while the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased. In November, the production, wholesale, and retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles all increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the export volume increased significantly [12]. - Logic: The current supply - demand is strong, and the inventory is still being depleted in December. The production in November continued to rise, and it is expected to remain strong in December. The apparent demand is good, and the production schedule in the off - season in December only slightly decreased. The retail sales growth rate of new energy vehicles weakened in November. The social inventory is being depleted, and the warehouse receipts are recovering. If the Jiaxiawo mine resumes production, the supply - demand may turn loose in late December. So, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. 2.行情监测 - Industrial Silicon: No specific monitoring content provided other than the information in the "行情观点" section. - Polysilicon: No specific monitoring content provided other than the information in the "行情观点" section. - Lithium Carbonate: No specific monitoring content provided other than the information in the "行情观点" section. 3.中信期货商品指数 - On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2267.05, a decrease of 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, a decrease of 0.37%; the industrial product index was 2216.09, a decrease of 0.16%. The new energy commodity index on December 8, 2025, was 440.89, with a daily increase of 0.41%, a 5 - day decrease of 2.54%, a 1 - month increase of 1.83%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.91% [55][57].