中央政治局会议强调继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, without releasing any signals beyond expectations. Recently, the profitability of steel mills has improved, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the later stage. After entering the off - season, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the steel futures market will operate weakly. There is still an expectation of a seasonal decline in hot metal production, and an expected increase in Mongolian coal imports. The futures markets of iron ore, coking coal, and coke are showing weak performance. The supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1]. - Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are poor, and the central political bureau meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. It is expected that the futures market will undergo a short - term weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the upcoming central economic work conference and the overseas interest - rate cut rhythm [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are undergoing annual maintenance. Although the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand remains slow. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, with Australian shipments rebounding, Brazilian shipments rising and then falling, and non - mainstream shipments increasing significantly month - on - month. The arrivals this period have decreased significantly month - on - month, but port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month, with overall inventory accumulation pressure remaining. The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are limited. After the decline in spot prices, the cost - effectiveness has rebounded. The profits of electric arc furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from both long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. It is expected that scrap steel prices will oscillate [2]. Carbon Element - The cost support for coke has weakened, and there is a strong expectation of further price cuts. However, there is still an expectation of winter storage and restocking of raw materials in mid - to late December, and the fundamentals still provide support. Currently, the futures valuation is too low, and there is insufficient impetus for a further significant decline. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal. It will take time to reverse the pessimistic sentiment towards coking coal. The upcoming winter storage and restocking by downstream enterprises in mid - to late December may gradually improve the fundamentals and market sentiment. Based on the expectation that the weakening of the coking coal supply - demand pattern is limited, the low - level futures valuation is expected to gradually recover at that time [2]. Alloys - The firm cost performance provides support for prices, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose, the cost transfer is not smooth, and there is insufficient impetus for the futures price to rise. It is expected that the futures price of ferromanganese silicon will mainly oscillate at a low level. The high - level cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market has weak supply and demand, and there are still difficulties in destocking. Caution should be exercised regarding the upward space of the futures price. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle - and downstream enterprises are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand situation remains in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise. The soda ash industry price is approaching the cost, with obvious bottom support. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has further increased, and the overall supply - demand of soda ash remains in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][7]. Specific Product Analysis - Steel: The spot market transactions are generally weak. As the end of the year approaches, steel mill maintenance has increased, hot metal production has continued to decline, and steel production has decreased from a high level, with a significant decline in rebar production. The funds available for domestic sample construction sites have weakened month - on - month, and the demand for building materials has declined significantly. The overall steel inventory has continued to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher year - on - year. As demand weakens, it will take time to ease the fundamental contradictions. It is expected that the futures market will operate weakly [9]. - Iron Ore: The spot market prices have weakened. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, and the arrivals this period have decreased significantly month - on - month, but port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month. It is expected that hot metal production may continue to decline seasonally, the support from rigid demand will gradually weaken, and the restocking demand has not been significantly released. There is still overall inventory accumulation pressure. In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [10]. - Scrap Steel: The supply of scrap steel has increased slightly this week but is still lower than the same period last year. The demand from electric arc furnaces has increased to some extent, while the demand from blast furnaces has decreased slightly. The inventories of steel enterprises have increased slightly. It is expected that scrap steel prices will oscillate [12]. - Coke: The futures market is pessimistic, and the spot market is weak. The supply is affected by the decline in raw material coal prices and the start of heavy - pollution weather warnings in some areas. The demand has decreased with the decline in hot metal production. The inventory of coke enterprises has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal [14]. - Coking Coal: The futures price has declined significantly. The domestic supply is at a low level, and the import is being tested for increased capacity. The demand has decreased as the downstream restocking has slowed down, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that the low - level futures valuation will gradually recover in mid - to late December [15]. - Glass: The macro - environment is warm, but the supply is expected to increase slightly, the demand is weak year - on - year, the middle - stream inventory is large, and the overall restocking ability is limited. The supply - demand situation remains in surplus. If there is no further cold - repair, prices may fall [16]. - Soda Ash: The macro - environment is warm, the supply is expected to increase, the demand from heavy - alkali is expected to weaken, and the demand from light - alkali has not changed much. The industry is in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [18]. - Ferromanganese Silicon: Affected by the decline in coking coal prices, the futures price has decreased. The cost is firm, the demand has decreased with the decline in steel production, and the supply is difficult to contract significantly. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [18]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price has decreased slightly. The cost is expected to remain high, the demand from steel mills and the metal magnesium market has weakened, the supply has decreased slightly, and the destocking is difficult. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [20]. Index Information - On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial products index was 2216.09, down 0.16%. The steel industry chain index was 1946.09, with a daily decline of 1.40%, a decline of 2.53% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.45% in the past month, and a decline of 7.69% since the beginning of the year [103][105].