金信期货日刊：焦煤接近跌停板，后市怎么看？-20251209

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the daily newsletter of GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD, written by the GOLDTRUST FUTURES Research Institute on December 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Hot News Focus - Coking Coal - On December 8, the price of the main coking coal contract was reported at 1,102.5 yuan per ton, down 7.13% on the day, and the cumulative decline since November has reached 17% [2] - In the future, it will probably show a short - term downward - pressured and volatile trend, with limited downward and upward space. The supply is restricted by domestic coal mine over - production inspections, but high Mongolian coal customs clearance and concentrated arrival of seaborne coal will suppress prices. The demand is weak due to increased steel mill overhauls in December and sufficient steel mill inventories. However, the current contract price is lower than the spot warehouse receipt cost, and pre - Spring Festival restocking demand will support prices [3] - Macroeconomic policy benefits have not yet translated into real demand, short - term bull - bear games have intensified, the main contract has not stabilized, and bottom - fishing operations should be extremely cautious [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the market opened higher and moved higher with weekend benefits, with a slight decline at the end of the session and the Shanghai Composite Index filled the gap. Technically, there were two consecutive positive lines, and the three major indexes formed an upward gap, with a low probability of short - term filling. It is recommended to consider low - buying operations [8] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold is currently in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase rising or killing falling [12] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation idea, and high - selling and low - buying operations should be carried out. With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply relaxation has further fermented, and terminal demand is weak except for exports [14][15] Group 6: Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume of glass has declined, and the inventory has decreased again this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance. Technically, there is no sign of stabilization, and it should be viewed with a downward - biased oscillation idea [18][19] Group 7: Technical Analysis - Fuel Oil - The processing demand of local refineries and the United States has gradually declined, the marine demand has fallen from a high level, the peak power - generation season in the Middle East has ended, the Palestine - Israel conflict has eased, and Egypt's fuel oil procurement demand may be significantly reduced next summer. Opportunities for long positions should be grasped [21] Group 8: Technical Analysis - Pulp - Pulp has rebounded due to multiple factors, but there is little substantial change in the fundamentals. The 03 and 05 contracts have risen to the pressure level of 5,500 - 5,600, but the spot basis has not shown an obvious strengthening trend in recent two days. Although the spot price has followed the rise, the basis has not widened, and there is relatively large pressure for the futures price to continue to rise significantly. It is temporarily judged to be in a wide - range oscillation [23]