政治局会议点评:提质增效,行稳致远
Bank of China Securities·2025-12-09 00:58

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of enhancing quality and efficiency in the context of China's economic policies for 2026, as discussed in the Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8, 2025 [1][2] - The report highlights that the meeting acknowledged the achievements of the past five years and confirmed that the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan will be successfully met, indicating a stable economic outlook [2] - The policy direction for the upcoming period is characterized by a focus on "better coordination of domestic economic work and international trade struggles," reflecting an increased awareness of external uncertainties [2] Group 2 - The macro policy tone continues to prioritize stability while shifting from "promoting stability through progress" to "enhancing quality and efficiency," indicating a more balanced approach to economic management [2] - The report outlines that the emphasis will be on leveraging both existing and new policies to enhance their integrated effects, with a focus on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [2] - The meeting reiterated the commitment to an "active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy," maintaining a focus on stability and quality in economic growth [2] Group 3 - Expanding domestic demand remains the primary task, with a clear directive to "build a strong domestic market," which is expected to lead to policies aimed at boosting consumption [2] - The report notes that there will be a dual focus on both expanding demand and optimizing supply, suggesting a coordinated approach to economic policy in the coming year [2] - The urgency for the development of the technology sector is highlighted, with a call to "accelerate the cultivation of new driving forces," indicating a shift towards fostering competitive emerging industries [2] Group 4 - The report suggests that the absence of explicit mentions regarding the capital and real estate markets does not imply a significant policy shift for the A-share market, as existing policies will continue to support market stability [2] - It is anticipated that the market will transition from being primarily driven by policy and capital to being driven by fundamental earnings growth, indicating a maturation of market dynamics [2] - The current phase of the A-share market is described as a "bull market continuation," with expectations for long-term capital inflows and a recovery in price levels, domestic demand, and innovation-driven profit growth [2]