原油：再转弱势，酌情追空

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the international crude oil market has turned weak again, with a trend strength of -1, suggesting a bearish outlook. It is recommended to consider short - selling. NYMEX WTI 01 - contract, ICE Brent 02 - contract, and SC2601 crude oil futures all declined on December 9, 2025 [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI 01 - contract dropped by $1.20 per barrel, a 2.00% decline, closing at $58.88 per barrel; ICE Brent 02 - contract fell by $1.26 per barrel, a 1.98% decline, at $62.49 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures decreased by 8.40 yuan per barrel, an 1.84% decline, to 448.00 yuan per barrel [1]. 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage Analysis - Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage: The arbitrage windows for various crude oils such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc. were closed, indicating no cost - advantage or weak competitiveness compared to benchmark oils [2]. - Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage: Forties against Bonny Light was close to the break - even point with fierce competition; Arab Extra Light showed a slight arbitrage opportunity; Saharan Blend had a significant arbitrage space; Cabinda had insufficient competitiveness; Urals had a huge arbitrage space due to sanctions - related discounts [3]. - North - Western Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage: WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light all presented arbitrage opportunities, indicating certain competitiveness in the North - Western Europe market [5]. - Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage: The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford against Urals were closed, showing weak competitiveness [6][7]. - Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage: Duri, Napo, and Mars showed arbitrage opportunities, while Basrah Heavy and Maya had their arbitrage windows closed or insufficient competitiveness [8]. 3.3 Key Market News - President Trump demanded Mexico to release water as per the treaty, threatening a 5% tariff if Mexico fails to comply [11]. - China's Jimsar National Continental Shale Oil Demonstration Area completed its construction target ahead of schedule, with an annual output exceeding 1.7 million tons for the first time [11]. - The US November New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation was 3.2%, slightly lower than the previous value of 3.24% [11]. - As of the week ending December 8, the crude oil arrival volume at Shandong independent refineries was 2.631 million tons, a 18.04% increase from the previous week [11]. - Russia plans to increase its oil exports from western ports by 27% in December compared to November [11]. - G7 and the EU are considering replacing the oil price cap mechanism with a ban on Russian oil export shipping services [11].