中泰期货晨会纪要-20251209

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, various commodities are classified into trend - bearish, oscillating - bearish, oscillating, oscillating - bullish, and trend - bullish categories [5]. - Based on quantitative indicators, commodities are divided into bearish, oscillating, and bullish groups [9]. - The macro - economic situation shows that China's trade data is good, and policies are expected to be more proactive and moderately loose. The global economic situation also has an impact on the market [11]. - Different trading strategies are proposed for various commodities in different sectors such as macro - finance, black, non - ferrous, agricultural products, and energy - chemical industries [16][20][27]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Information - The Politburo meeting emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on domestic demand [11]. - China's trade data from January to November 2025 shows a 3.6% year - on - year increase in total import and export value, with exports up 6.2% and imports up 0.2%. In November, the growth rate rebounded [11]. - Experts expect China to continue an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, with a fiscal deficit rate no lower than 4% and an increase in new government debt [11]. - There are discussions about "relaxing restrictions on brokers", and the industry's leverage will be kept within a reasonable range [12]. - The November 2025 passenger car market retail shows a decline in fuel - powered cars and an increase in new energy vehicles. The 2026 car market may face great pressure [12]. - The global storage market is expected to enter a "triple super - cycle" in 2026, with a 98% year - on - year growth in market size [12]. - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the market is highly concerned about the Fed's meeting [12]. - Trump plans to sign an AI regulatory order and launch an agricultural aid program. The US Labor Bureau will delay the release of October PPI data [13]. - Japan's Q3 GDP is revised downwards, and the selling of Japanese government bonds is accelerating [13][14]. 2. Macro - Finance 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to adopt a wide - range oscillating approach. A - shares rose with increased trading volume, and various sectors showed different performances. Policy factors and market data affect the market [16]. 2.2 Bond Futures - If the consensus on the decline of the capital - market center is reached, medium - and short - term bonds may stabilize and rebound, while ultra - long - term bonds are neutral in the short term and cautious in the medium term [18]. 3. Black 3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Policy - wise, focus on the Central Economic Work Conference and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's deployment. Fundamentally, steel demand is weak in the building materials sector but better in the coil sector. Supply may decline, and inventory is high. The medium - to - long - term trend is bearish [20]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Supply may contract due to safety regulations, and demand is affected by the steel industry's profit. There may be a rebound in the far - month 05 contract, but the space is limited [22]. 3.3 Ferroalloys - For silicon iron, a bullish view is maintained; for manganese silicon, a bearish view is held in the medium term. The market is affected by ore supply and production capacity [23]. 3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, a wait - and - see approach is recommended; for glass, a long - position can be considered after the market stabilizes. Supply and demand factors affect the prices [25]. 4. Non - Ferrous and New Materials 4.1 Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate widely. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and factors such as production reduction and macro - policies affect the price [27][28]. 4.2 Lead - Lead prices may stop falling and rise in December. Supply is tight in some areas, and demand from battery factories may increase [29][30]. 4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Prices may oscillate widely in the short term. Supply is increasing, but long - term demand is strong [31]. 4.4 Industrial Silicon - Affected by the new delivery brands of polysilicon, industrial silicon may adjust weakly. Downward space is limited, and short - term long - positions can be considered after an over - decline [32]. 4.5 Polysilicon - There may be a correction due to new delivery brands. Low - buying opportunities can be considered after the correction [33]. 5. Agricultural Products 5.1 Cotton - Short - term supply pressure is high, and demand is not yet strong. Low - buying opportunities can be sought [36]. 5.2 Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate downward. Supply is increasing, and cost provides some support [38]. 5.3 Eggs - Near - month contracts may oscillate. Far - month contracts may be supported by the expected decline in inventory but are under pressure due to high valuations [40]. 5.4 Apples - Prices are expected to oscillate. Sales are affected by the supply of other fruits [42]. 5.5 Corn - For the 03 contract, a short - position can be considered. The market is affected by supply - demand mismatch and inventory changes [43]. 5.6 Red Dates - A long - position can be considered for far - month contracts. Prices in production and sales areas are stable [44]. 5.7 Pigs - The spot market is bearish. Supply is increasing, and demand is not strong enough. Short - positions can be held for near - month contracts [45]. 6. Energy - Chemical 6.1 Crude Oil - Supply is in excess. The end of the conflict may lead to a decline in geopolitical premiums. Prices are expected to oscillate [47]. 6.2 Fuel Oil - Prices follow the trend of crude oil. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. The focus is on geopolitical factors [48]. 6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak demand. A bearish - oscillating approach is recommended [49]. 6.4 Rubber - The ru - nr spread may weaken. Prices are expected to oscillate. Supply and demand are relatively balanced [50]. 6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Cost and demand affect the market [52]. 6.6 Methanol - Near - month contracts may oscillate weakly, and far - month contracts can be considered for long - positions after de - stocking [53]. 6.7 Caustic Soda - A short - term oscillating approach is recommended. Spot prices are weak, and futures contracts are affected by inventory and demand [55]. 6.8 Asphalt - Demand is approaching the end - stage, and the focus is on the winter - storage price bottom. Prices are affected by crude oil and market expectations [56]. 6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - Terminal demand is weak. Opportunities in PTA - ethylene glycol spreads and ethylene glycol backwardation can be considered [57]. 6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Prices may turn weak after a high - level period. Supply and demand factors affect the market [58]. 6.11 Offset Printing Paper - A bearish approach is recommended. Supply is in excess, and cost provides some support [59]. 6.12 Pulp - Prices may oscillate weakly. Import volume is increasing, and spot trading is weak [60]. 6.13 Logs - The market is bearish. Inventory is expected to increase, and prices are under pressure [61]. 6.14 Urea - Spot prices may oscillate weakly. Futures prices are affected by spot trading and coal prices [62].