宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年12月9日）-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary policy easing. The Treasury bond futures are under pressure but also supported, and will mainly be in a range - bound consolidation in the short term [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - and medium - term easing expectations still exist [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is "weakening", and the medium - term view is "sideways", with a reference view of "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures continued to trade sideways yesterday. After the Politburo meeting, fiscal policy will increase fiscal efforts to stabilize aggregate economic demand, and there is an expectation of an increase in ultra - long - term Treasury bonds and special bond quotas, resulting in supply pressure on long - term bonds. However, the monetary policy environment remains moderately loose, so Treasury bond futures are under pressure but also supported, and will mainly trade sideways in the short term [5]