格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20251209

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "oscillating" [1] Core View - The short - term trend of bond futures is likely to be oscillating, and trading - style investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, most of the main contracts of bond futures opened lower. After horizontal fluctuations in the morning, they declined, with a rapid pull - up in the afternoon but a quick decline, and a slight rebound near the end of the session. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.29%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2603 remained flat [1] Important Information - Open market: On Monday, the central bank conducted 122.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 107.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 14.7 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.30%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, up from 1.44% in the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly. The yield of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.02 BP to 1.40%, the 5 - year yield increased by 0.26 BP to 1.63%, the 10 - year yield increased by 0.19 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year yield increased by 0.06 BP to 2.26% [1] - Policy: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work in 2026. It emphasized implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [1][2] - Trade data: In November, China's US - dollar - denominated export amount increased by 5.9% year - on - year, better than the expected 3.0%, and the import increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 111.68 billion US dollars. From January to November, the cumulative export amount increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative import amount decreased by 0.6% year - on - year [2] Market Logic - China's export data in November was better than expected, but the manufacturing and service PMIs were below the boom - bust line. The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth is still the main line in the fourth quarter. The Politburo meeting on December 8 proposed to continue implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. The bond futures market continued the characteristics of last week, with the 30 - year variety continuing to decline and other varieties fluctuating horizontally [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - style investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]