Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday. Affected by the decline in raw material prices, the prices of finished steel products remained in a bottom - oscillating state. Terminal demand was still weak, but steel prices were gradually stabilizing. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was still prominent and difficult to significantly reduce in the short term. [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely. There is still pressure for a phased decline within the price range, and the support for the weighted contract is expected to be at 750 yuan/ton. [5] - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the trading focus is expected to return to the macro level. The future market is mainly guided by the direction of the black sector and factors such as price increases of manganese ore and electricity. [9] - The price of industrial silicon is estimated to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8500 yuan/ton. [12] - The polysilicon market shows a situation of tug - of - war between reality and expectation, and between the upstream and downstream of the industry. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. [14][15] - For glass, in the absence of unexpected changes, a bearish approach is recommended. [18] - For soda ash, the market is expected to continue its weak and oscillating trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish approach is maintained. [20] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 46,276 tons, a net increase of 2135 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.477577 million lots, a net increase of 3036 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3291 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton (-0.87%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 113,732 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1.078676 million lots, a net increase of 11,932 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The rebar production decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable overall performance. [2] - The production of hot - rolled coils decreased, but the apparent demand remained neutral. It was difficult to reduce the inventory, and the social inventory was still at a relatively high level. [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 760.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.11% (-8.50). The position changed by +20,646 lots to 429,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 928,200 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.17 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.67%. [4] Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. In Australia, shipments stopped falling and increased, mainly due to the rebound in shipments from Rio Tinto and FMG. The shipment volume from Brazil decreased month - on - month, with a significant decline from Vale. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries reached a new high for the year, and the near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month. [5] - In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output according to the latest Steel Union data was 2.323 million tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons month - on - month. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance was more than those being restarted, and the annual inspections increased with relatively long durations. The profitability rate of steel mills rebounded slightly after continuous decline, and the number of profitable steel mills was still less than 40%. [5] - In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On December 8, coking coal led the decline, and the black sector continued to weaken. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fell in the morning and then rebounded in an oscillating manner, closing down 0.38% at 5736 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, remaining stable compared to the previous day, with a premium of 174 yuan/ton over the futures price. [7][8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.55% at 5444 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous day, with a premium of 156 yuan/ton over the futures price. [8] Strategy Viewpoints - The trading focus is expected to return to the macro level before the occurrence of intensive macro - events. The subsequent deployment of next year's economic work in the Central Economic Work Conference and potential policy expectations will become the trading focus of the black sector in the future. [9] - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been priced in. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is mainly guided by the direction of the black sector and factors such as price increases of manganese ore and electricity. [9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - For industrial silicon, the closing price of the main contract (SI2601) was 8675 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.48% (-130). The weighted contract position changed by +18,060 lots to 459,193 lots. In the spot market, the quoted price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the quoted price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 625 yuan/ton for 553 and 225 yuan/ton for 421. [11] - For polysilicon, the closing price of the main contract (PS2601) was 54,545 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.74% (-965). The weighted contract position changed by -1298 lots to 258,624 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 50 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.3 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged. The basis of the main contract was -2245 yuan/ton. [13] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon showed a weak trend in the short term. In November, affected by the increase in costs during the dry season, the operating rate in the southwest production area decreased significantly, and the total output decreased. It is expected that the output in the southwest region will continue to decline in December, and the overall output may continue to decline compared to November. The demand weakened slightly, and the supply - demand pattern showed a double - weak situation with no prominent contradictions. The price is estimated to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8500 yuan/ton. [12] - For polysilicon, the production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited due to the expected capacity ramp - up and start - up of some northwest bases. The downstream silicon wafer production reduction is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells continued to weaken, while upstream silicon enterprises maintained price support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. [14][15] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - For glass, the main contract closed at 1002 yuan/ton at 15:00 on Monday, an increase of 0.80% (+8). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1060 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China remained unchanged at 1110 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million cases, a decrease of 2.92 million cases (-4.68%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 25,830 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 61,031 lots. [17] - For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1133 yuan/ton at 15:00 on Monday, a decrease of 0.35% (-4). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1123 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 48,800 tons (-4.68%), including 810,800 tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 36,000 tons, and 727,800 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 12,800 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 27,379 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 38,430 lots. [19] Strategy Viewpoints - In November, multiple production lines in the domestic glass industry were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a reduction in daily melting capacity. From the perspective of the real estate sector, the industry still faces downward pressure, and a bearish approach is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes. [18] - For soda ash, the overall industry operating rate remained stable, and the supply pressure was still large. The demand was relatively flat, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. The production enterprises mainly fulfilled previous orders and had a strong intention to stabilize prices. The Alxa Phase II project is planned to be officially put into production on December 11, which is expected to bring certain pressure to the soda ash market. The market is expected to continue its weak and oscillating trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish approach is maintained. [20]
五矿期货黑色建材日报-20251209
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-09 01:11