国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Wait for the inflection point confirmation and conduct range - bound operations for now [2][4] - Soybean oil: Lack of driving force from US soybeans, mainly in a volatile state [2][4] - Soybean meal: Weakly volatile, be cautious about the risks associated with the USDA report [2][11] - Soybean: The market is oscillating [2][11] - Corn: Focus on the spot market [2][14] - Sugar: Narrow - range fluctuations [2][18] - Cotton: Oscillating with a slight upward trend, pay attention to downstream demand [2][22] - Peanuts: Focus on the purchases by oil mills [2][27] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,706 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.73%, and the night - session closing price was 8,698 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.09%. Soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,230 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.44%, and the night - session closing price was 8,026 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.48% [4] - Macro and Industry News: An Indonesian official said that a special task force has ordered dozens of palm oil and mining companies to pay a total fine of 38.62 trillion Indonesian rupiah (equivalent to $2.31 billion) for illegal operations in forest areas. The US government will provide $12 billion in assistance to American farmers. Private exporters reported selling 132,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. As of December 5, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 90.3% [4][5][7] - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [10] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean 2601's closing price (day session) was 4,085 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price was 4,077 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.17%. DCE soybean meal 2605's closing price (day session) was 2,778 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.77% [11] - Macro and Industry News: On December 8, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to uncertain Chinese demand and favorable South American weather. The USDA will release a supply - demand report, and traders are concerned about a possible downward adjustment of US soybean export forecasts. Brazil's crop outlook remains strong with expected widespread rainfall [11][13] - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of - 1, and soybean has a trend intensity of 0 [13] 3.3 Corn - Fundamental Data: The closing price of C2601 was 2,261 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.57%, and the night - session closing price was 2,242 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.84%. The closing price of C2603 was 2,232 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.59%, and the night - session closing price was 2,220 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54% [15] - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices increased by 10 yuan/ton, while Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Northeast deep - processing corn prices continued to rise, and North China's corn prices showed mixed trends [16] - Trend Intensity: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [17] 3.4 Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 14.82 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,420 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,337 yuan/ton [18] - Macro and Industry News: As of the end of November, India's sugar production in the 2025/2026 season increased by 49.8% year - on - year. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of November increased by 9% year - on - year. China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October [18] - Trend Intensity: Sugar has a trend intensity of - 1 [20] 3.5 Cotton - Fundamental Data: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,750 yuan/ton with no change, and the night - session closing price was 13,765 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.11%. The closing price of CY2603 was 19,980 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 19,970 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05% [22] - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading was dull, and high - basis trading was poor. Cotton yarn prices fluctuated slightly, and the full - cotton grey fabric market showed a differentiated situation. ICE cotton futures declined after an initial rise [23][24] - Trend Intensity: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [26] 3.6 Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The closing price of PK601 was 8,068 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%, and the closing price of PK603 was 8,076 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.05% [27] - Macro and Industry News: In Henan, peanut prices were stable with a slight upward trend; in Jilin, prices were stable with a slight upward trend; in Liaoning, prices were basically stable; in Shandong, prices were basically stable. Some oil mills started purchasing on December 8 [28] - Trend Intensity: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [29]