国新国证期货早报-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 8, 2025, the A-share market showed a mixed performance across various futures and commodities. The stock index futures had a strong performance, while the coke and coking coal futures were weak. Other commodities such as sugar, rubber, palm oil, etc., also had their own market trends influenced by different factors including supply - demand relationships, international trade, and policy - related news [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 8, the A - share three major indexes all closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54% to close at 3924.08 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39% to 13329.99 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.60% to 3190.27 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 20366 billion, a significant increase of 3109 billion from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index remained strong, closing at 4621.76, a ring - up of 37.22 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 8, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1600.7, a ring - down of 85.3. The coking coal weighted index also operated weakly, closing at 1062.9 yuan, a ring - down of 70.2. The first round of coke price cuts was implemented. The current iron - water output is 232.30 (- 2.38) million tons, and coke inventory is moderately weak. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 30 yuan/ton. For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 clean coal is reported at 1390, equivalent to 1170 on the futures market. The mine capacity utilization rate has declined for two consecutive weeks, and the inventory in the middle - and - upper reaches has increased for 4 - 5 consecutive weeks [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Although the spot price has been slightly lowered, due to the large decline recently, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rebounded slightly on December 8 under the influence of technical factors. At night, the contract fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower. The 2025/26 national unified initial pricing plan for sugarcane has been approved, with a guide price of 890 Thai baht per ton for a sweetness level of 10 CCS, and a price fluctuation range of 53.40 Thai baht per CCS unit [4]. Rubber - On December 8, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly. At night, it declined slightly due to short - selling pressure. The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association predicted that the total tire shipments in the United States in 2025 would be 337.4 million, a slight increase of 0.03% compared to 2024 and an increase of 1.4% compared to 2019 [4][5]. Palm Oil - On December 8, the main contract of palm oil fluctuated downward after rising and then falling, and the position was shifted. The P2601 K - line closed with a negative line, with the highest price of 8810, the lowest price of 8682, and the closing price of 8706, a decrease of 0.73% from the previous day. As of December 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 683,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,200 tons or 4.62%, and a year - on - year increase of 167,000 tons or 32.32% [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on December 8, the CBOT soybean futures price was weak. The U.S. export outlook is uncertain, and Brazilian soybean sowing is nearly complete, with most analysts expecting the Brazilian soybean yield to exceed 170 million tons. As of November 26, the soybean sowing rate in Argentina was 36%, compared with 45% in the same period last year. Domestically, on December 8, soybean meal increased in position and declined. The M2605 main contract closed at 2778 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52%. China's soybean imports in November were 8.107 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% and the highest since 2021. In the first 11 months of this year, China's soybean imports reached 137.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal supply remains in a loose state [5]. Live Pigs - On December 8, the LH2603 contract closed at 11385 yuan/ton, unchanged. The slaughter enthusiasm of the breeding end is relatively high. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises in December increased month - on - month. The market supply continues to be abundant, suppressing the price. On the demand side, the decline in domestic temperature has promoted a marginal recovery in pork consumption, but the overall progress is slow, and the demand - side recovery rhythm is relatively gentle. The current live - pig market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper continued to be strong and reached a new high. The expectation of supply contraction and macro - positive factors resonated to push up the price. The main contract of Shanghai copper reached a maximum of 93300 yuan/ton during the session and closed at 92970 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the CSPT group advocated a 10% reduction in copper ore smelting capacity. The supply contraction expectation continues to strengthen, and the copper concentrate processing fee is at a historical low. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory continues to accumulate, but the global copper visible inventory is still at a low level. On the demand side, the high copper price makes downstream procurement more cautious, but the demand in the photovoltaic, wind power, and new - energy vehicle fields provides some support [5]. Cotton - On the night of December 8, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13765 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 44 lots compared with the previous trading day. The cotton picking in Xinjiang is basically completed, and cotton farmers are waiting for a better price [5]. Iron Ore - On December 8, the 2601 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and declined, with a decline of 1.14% and a closing price of 778.5 yuan. The iron ore shipping volume increased month - on - month, the arrival volume decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the iron - water output decline increased. The short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [5][6]. Asphalt - On December 8, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed up, with an increase of 0.34% and a closing price of 2959 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased slightly, the inventory reduction rate slowed down, the demand - side road construction projects are ending, and the short - term asphalt price shows a volatile trend [6]. Logs - On December 8, the 2601 contract of logs opened at 765.5, with a minimum of 765.5, a maximum of 772.5, and a closing of 769.5, with a daily position reduction of 808 lots. Attention should be paid to the position shift and the support from the spot end. The spot prices of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on December 8. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and subsequent attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6]. Steel - On December 8, the rb2605 contract was reported at 3123 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract was reported at 3291 yuan/ton. The sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures drove the entire black futures to weaken, and the cost support declined, dragging down the steel price. The weak demand in the off - season and the environmental protection restrictions in some areas led to an increase in the number of steel mill overhauls. The short - term steel market supply - demand may be in a weak balance, and the decline in raw material prices drives the steel price to be weak [6]. Alumina - On December 8, the ao2601 contract was reported at 2585 yuan/ton. The actual willingness to reduce production is extremely weak during the year - end long - term contract negotiation period. The extremely low spot transaction prices have hit market confidence. The "cost - support" logic has been completely weakened, and the current price has fallen below the cash cost line, but there is no large - scale overhaul, and the oversupply sentiment dominates the market [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On December 8, the al2601 contract was reported at 22275 yuan/ton. The strong performance of the copper market has a strong guiding effect on aluminum, but the upward pressure on aluminum is relatively strong. The market is still waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. On the supply side, the operation is stable, the downstream aluminum - water absorption capacity is acceptable, the social inventory is slightly reduced, and the demand side shows some resilience. However, the spot maintains a high discount [6].