Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to remain high in the short - term, supported by the expected reduction in production due to tight mining supply and the tightening of spot supply. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory declining, high US spot aluminum premiums, and continued reduction in LME aluminum ingot inventory. Lead prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term due to low domestic delivery product inventory. Zinc prices are expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly in the short - term, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains unchanged. Tin prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to supply disruptions. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Lithium carbonate prices are likely to have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Stainless steel prices depend on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts. Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [4][6][8][10][12][15][18][21][24][27] Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - The domestic equity market was strong, the US dollar index was stable, and the copper price rose and then fell. LME copper 3M contract rose slightly by 0.09% to $11,675/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 92,400 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2000 to 164,550 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and bonded area inventory both increased [3] Strategy Viewpoint - The Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and it is likely to continue the rate - cut rhythm. The Chinese Politburo meeting released a relatively loose policy signal. The copper price is expected to remain high in the short - term, and the reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 91,500 - 93,500 yuan/ton; the reference operating range for LME copper 3M is $11,500 - 11,850/ton [4] Aluminum Market Information - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and the aluminum price rose and then fell. LME aluminum closed down 0.48% to $2,886/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,120 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 0.3 to 725,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 68,000 tons [5] Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, the US spot aluminum premium is high, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory continues to decrease. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,900 - 22,400 yuan/ton; the reference operating range for LME aluminum 3M is $2,850 - 2,910/ton [6] Lead Market Information - The Shanghai lead index rose 0.23% to 17,338 yuan/ton on Monday. LME lead 3S fell $6 to $2,011.5/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 20,400 tons [7] Strategy Viewpoint - The port inventory of lead ore decreased marginally, and the factory inventory increased normally. The production rates of primary lead and recycled lead are rising, and the production rate of downstream battery enterprises is also rising. The lead price is expected to run strongly in the short - term [8] Zinc Market Information - The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.05% to 23,300 yuan/ton on Monday. LME zinc 3S rose $8 to $3,124.5/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 4,300 tons to 136,000 tons [9] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of zinc ore decreased marginally, and the zinc concentrate TC declined again. In the medium - term, the supply surplus cycle of the zinc industry remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. In the short - term, the zinc price is expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly [10] Tin Market Information - On December 8, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 319,200 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous day. The supply of tin concentrate imports increased significantly in October, but the conflict in the DRC and the possible suspension of mining in Nigeria may affect the supply [11] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, the supply disruption is the decisive factor for the short - term price. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 340,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $40,000 - 44,000/ton [12] Nickel Market Information - The nickel price fluctuated narrowly on Monday. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 1,178,030 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from the previous day. The spot premiums of various brands were stable [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but the nickel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel price is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [15] Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 90,969 yuan, up 0.33%. The LC2605 contract closed at 94,840 yuan, up 2.91% [17] Strategy Viewpoint - Due to the mining dispute in Nigeria and the repair of the risk appetite in the equity market, the lithium carbonate price rose strongly. The trend may not last, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the LC2605 contract is 92,500 - 97,500 yuan/ton [18] Alumina Market Information - On December 8, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.11% to 2,636 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 2,725 yuan/ton [20] Strategy Viewpoint - After the rainy season, the ore shipment will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,450 - 2,700 yuan/ton [21] Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,510 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.08%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The social inventory decreased to 1.0803 million tons [23] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the sales improved in November, the high inventory pressure is still significant. The focus should be on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The cast aluminum alloy price fell and then rebounded. The main AD2602 contract closed down 0.26% to 21,135 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place inventory decreased by 30 tons to 49,200 tons [26] Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and the supply is affected by policies. The price is expected to follow the aluminum price to fluctuate [27]
五矿期货有色金属日报-20251209
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-09 01:29