能源化工日报-20251209

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is oscillating upwards. The demand has improved due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With support from export policies and costs, it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [8]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish approach is currently adopted. It is recommended to buy on short - term dips and exit quickly. A hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested to be held [13]. - For PVC, the industry's comprehensive profit is at a historical low, but supply is high and demand is weak. With an oversupply situation, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported by cost changes in Q1 next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December. With a neutral valuation, it is recommended to consider going long on dips [26]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short term. It is recommended to consider going long on dips based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE's main crude oil futures rose 4.20 yuan/barrel, or 0.93%, to 457.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also showed increases. European ARA weekly data showed mixed inventory changes in refined products, with a net decrease of 0.39 million barrels in total refined oil inventory [2]. - Strategy: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - Market Information: The price in Taicang decreased by 5, remained stable in Lunan, and decreased by 7.5 in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 12 yuan to 2089 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [5]. - Strategy: After the bullish factors are realized, the market consolidates. With high inventory and supply pressure, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - Market Information: The spot price in Shandong and Henan decreased by 20, remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract decreased by 27 yuan to 1646 yuan, with a basis of + 34 [8]. - Strategy: The market is oscillating upwards. With improved supply - demand and support from policies and costs, it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price is consolidating weakly. The exchange's RU inventory is low, which is a potential bullish factor. Tire factory operating rates are mixed, and the social inventory of natural rubber has increased [11]. - Strategy: Adopt a neutral - bullish approach, buy on short - term dips and exit quickly, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - Market Information: The 01 contract rose 5 yuan to 4431 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene increased, while the price of caustic soda decreased. The overall operating rate decreased, and both factory and social inventories increased [13]. - Strategy: With high supply and weak demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both increased. The supply - side upstream operating rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene increased. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased slightly [18]. - Strategy: When the inventory reversal point appears, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The futures price decreased by 68 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [21]. - Strategy: The long - term contradiction has shifted, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The futures price decreased by 36 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [23][24]. - Strategy: In a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory, it may be supported by cost changes in Q1 next year [25]. PX - Market Information: The 01 contract rose 56 yuan to 6842 yuan. The load of PX and PTA decreased slightly. The inventory increased in October, and the valuation is at a neutral level [25]. - Strategy: It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December. With a neutral valuation, consider going long on dips [26]. PTA - Market Information: The 01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4694 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 20 yuan. The PTA load remained unchanged, and the downstream load increased slightly. The inventory decreased in November [26]. - Strategy: The supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short term. Consider going long on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The 01 contract decreased by 22 yuan to 3701 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 60 yuan. The supply - side load decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased significantly [28]. - Strategy: The supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. Short on rallies in the medium term [29].