宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025年12月9日）-20251209

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach due to rising interest - rate cut expectations and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation [1]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all strong. It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view because of the macro - economic easing and mine - end production cuts [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Performance: Yesterday, the gold price oscillated and weakened. New York gold approached the $4200 mark, and Shanghai gold approached the 950 - yuan mark [3]. - Driving Force: Since late November, the upward momentum of the gold price has mainly come from the continuous rise in the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut and the decline of the US dollar index from a high level. The short - term market has fully priced in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the recovery of market risk appetite has put pressure on the gold price. As the Fed's December interest - rate meeting approaches, the short - term market has become more cautious, and gold price fluctuations have decreased, waiting for the meeting results [3]. Copper - Price Performance: Yesterday, the copper price first rose and then fell. The main futures price once reached the 93,000 - yuan mark. At night, the positions of Shanghai copper slightly decreased, and the willingness of long - position holders to take profits increased [4]. - Driving Force: Since late November, the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December has risen, creating a macro - economic easing trading atmosphere and strengthening the financial attribute of copper. Copper is in an industrial background of supply contraction. The resonance of macro - economic and industrial positive factors has pushed the copper price to break through the 90,000 - yuan mark. In terms of funds, both the positions of Shanghai copper in China and London copper overseas have increased significantly, and the attention of funds has risen rapidly. In the short and medium terms, the macro - economic factors drive the copper price up, and the attention of funds is high, with strong upward momentum. However, due to the large short - term increase in the copper price and the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the number of long - position holders taking profits may increase [4].