Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of vegetable oils is weak. Short positions in palm oil should be entered, short positions in soybean oil should be held, and short positions in rapeseed oil should continue to be held. Soybean oil will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the medium term, palm oil is short - term long and long - term short, and rapeseed oil has the largest decline [1][2]. - For double - meal products, the supply pressure in the overseas protein raw material market has increased, and short positions in soybean meal and rapeseed meal should continue to be held [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock - Three Oils (1) Market Review - On December 8, due to the expected increase in the new planting area of US soybeans, the slowdown of exports to China, and the decline of US soybean oil driving down domestic soybean oil, the approaching start of Australian rapeseed crushing accelerating the decline of rapeseed oil, and palm oil following the decline. The main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 8,032 yuan/ton, down 0.59% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 7,193 lots in positions; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 7,952 yuan/ton, down 0.75% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 2,803 lots in positions. The main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 8,702 yuan/ton, down 0.68% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 9,331 lots in positions; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 8,546 yuan/ton, down 0.67% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 379 lots in positions. The main contract of rapeseed oil OI2605 closed at 9,274 yuan/ton, down 1.41% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 10,130 lots in positions; the second - main contract OI2609 closed at 9,250 yuan/ton, down 1.29% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 130 lots in positions [1]. (2) Important Information - On December 8, US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures fell about 2%. The NYMEX's most actively traded January crude oil futures contract fell $1.20, or 2%, to settle at $58.88 per barrel [1]. - Statistics Canada announced that Canada's rapeseed production in 2025 increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons, exceeding the record set in 2017 and higher than analysts' expectations of 21.25 million tons [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - Data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA) showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in November decreased by 0.19% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 2.09% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.36% month - on - month [1]. - Data from the shipping survey agency ITS showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 1,316,455 tons, a decrease of 19.7% compared with 1,639,089 tons in October. Exports to China were 129,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with 135,000 tons in October [1]. - Bloomberg's survey and forecast data showed that in November, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.98 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%; exports were 1.43 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15%; inventory was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10%. Imports were estimated at 40,000 tons, and consumption was about 380,000 tons. The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) said that Malaysia's palm oil production in November 2025 was estimated to be 1.95 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38% [1]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that the amount of soybean oil used in US biofuel production in September 2025 was 1.053 billion pounds, higher than 1.041 billion pounds in August [1]. - As of the end of the 49th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4294 million tons, a weekly decrease of 16,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.06%. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.4016 million tons, a weekly decrease of 15,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.07%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.21%; the edible palm oil inventory was 622,200 tons, a weekly increase of 18,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%; the rapeseed oil inventory was 405,600 tons, a weekly decrease of 18,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.45%, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.67% [2]. (3) Spot Market - As of December 8, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,570 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton; the basis was 340 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 36 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,690 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton, the basis was - 16 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 491.76 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,760 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 110 yuan/ton, the basis was 258 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6 yuan/ton [2]. (4) Oil - Meal Ratio - As of December 8, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.96 [2]. (5) Market Logic - Externally, the expected increase in the new - year planting area of US soybeans put pressure on US soybean oil, and the decline of surrounding vegetable oil futures prices dragged down Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, due to sufficient supply of vegetable oil raw materials and good overall inventory, the basis of soybean oil was weak. However, due to the price - ratio factor between soybean oil and palm oil, the Y2605 contract of domestic soybean oil mainly showed a range - bound oscillation. The trend of domestic palm oil mainly followed that of Malaysian palm oil, with a short - term rebound ending and a long - term downward pressure pattern formed. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and Canada's increase in rapeseed production in 2025 to a new historical high led to a sharp decline in the near - month contracts of domestic rapeseed oil. Overall, the vegetable oil market was weak [2]. (6) Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Enter short positions in palm oil, hold short positions in soybean oil, and continue to hold short positions in rapeseed oil. The resistance level of the Y2601 contract is 9,000, and the support level is 8,000; the resistance level of the Y2605 contract is 8,400, and the support level is 7,840; the resistance level of the P2601 contract is 8,562, and the support level is 8,270; the resistance level of the P2605 contract is 8,626, and the support level is 8,200; the resistance level of the OI2601 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 9,299; the resistance level of the OI2605 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 9,000. Arbitrage trading: Cautiously hold the expanding spread of the 05 contracts of soybean oil and palm oil. As of the close on December 2, it was - 666, and on December 8, it was - 670 [2]. 2. Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) (1) Market Review - On December 8, due to the strengthened expectation of the growth of the new - crop planting area of US soybeans and the slowdown of US soybean exports to China, the double - meal products broke through the support level and declined. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2,778 yuan/ton, down 1.52% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 1.07 million lots in positions; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 2,896 yuan/ton, down 1.36% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 8,583 lots in positions. The main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2,342 yuan/ton, down 1.47% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 41,969 lots in positions; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2,408 yuan/ton, down 1.55% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 4,291 lots in positions [2]. (2) Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture estimated that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers would reduce the corn - planting area and increase the soybean - planting area to 85 million acres. Previously, S&P Global predicted that the US soybean - planting area in 2026 would increase by 4%, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres [2]. - Since November 10, China's General Administration of Customs has restored the soybean - import licenses of three US companies, namely CHS, the grain department of Louis Dreyfus, and EGT [2]. - As of last Thursday, the sowing area of soybeans in the 2025/26 season in Brazil reached 89% of the expected area, 8 percentage points higher than the previous week but still lower than 91% in the same period last year [2]. - The consulting firm StoneX predicted on Monday that the soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season might reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [2]. - From November 1 to 21, Brazil's soybean exports were 3.366 million tons, compared with 2.553 million tons in November last year. The average daily export volume from November so far was 240,452 tons, a year - on - year increase of 78.9% [2]. - As of the week ending November 27, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 920,194 tons, with a market expectation of 800,000 - 1,250,000 tons. The previous week's revised figure was 808,740 tons, and the initial value was 799,042 tons. The soybean export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland that week was 0 tons [2]. - As of the end of the 49th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.804 million tons, a decrease of 208,000 tons compared with 8.012 million tons last week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons compared with 1.22 million tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.33%; the contract volume was 6.42 million tons, an increase of 1.504 million tons compared with 4.916 million tons last week, a month - on - month increase of 30.59%. The total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 65,000 tons, the same as last week [3]. (3) Spot Market - As of December 8, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,093 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 43,000 tons. The basis price of soybean meal was 3,078 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 223,000 tons. The basis of the main soybean - meal contract was 14 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,385 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 23 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis was 2,507 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis of the main rapeseed - meal contract was 208 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/ton [3]. (4) Crushing Profit - The January futures crushing profit of US soybeans was - 528 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was - 230 yuan/ton; the February futures crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans was - 174 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was 124 yuan/ton [3]. (5) Soybean Arrival Cost - The arrival cost of US Gulf soybeans for the January shipment at Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 4,071 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans for the February shipment at Zhangjiagang was 3,753 yuan/ton. The CNF quote of US Gulf soybeans for the January shipment was $500/ton; the CNF quote of Brazilian soybeans for the February shipment was $460/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian soybeans for the January shipment was $515/ton; the arrival cost of rapeseed for the January shipment at Guangzhou Port was 4,425 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2 yuan/ton [3]. (6) Market Logic - Externally, the US Department of Agriculture and S&P successively increased the expected soybean - planting area in the 2026/2027 season, and the delay of exports to China, along with Canada's increase in rapeseed production, put pressure on the protein market, causing US soybeans to continue to decline under pressure. In the spot market, the fixed - price and near - month basis of oil mills increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the trading volume improved slightly during the week. The rumor of the targeted auction by Sinograin was confirmed, and the first 500,000 - ton auction will start on December 11, putting pressure on the far - month contracts and leading to an increase in short positions by funds. In the rapeseed - meal spot market, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed for crushing in mid - to - late December, the recovery of domestic imported granular meal inventory, and the off - season of the aquaculture industry, rapeseed meal was under pressure [3]. (7) Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Continue to hold short positions in soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The resistance level of the M2605 contract is 2,858, and the support level is 2,700; the resistance level of the M2607 contract is 2,840, and the support level is 2,700; the resistance level of the RM2605 contract is 2,444, and the support level is 2,270; the resistance level of the RM2607 contract is 2,429, and the support level is 2,260. Arbitrage trading: No trading strategy provided [3].
格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20251209
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-12-09 01:40