碳酸锂日评：偏弱震荡-20251209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 8, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The spot market trading was light, and the basis changed from premium to discount. Considering factors such as cost, supply, demand, and inventory, with repeated news of lithium mine resumption in Jiangxi, high weekly production of lithium carbonate, strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment, light spot market trading, and stagnant demand growth, the short - term fundamentals show a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Under position limits, it is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. The recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On December 8th, the trading volume of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 99967 lots (+137860), and the open interest was 593129 lots (+32453). The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts all had certain increases compared to the previous period. [1] Spot Market - As of December 5th, the spot port + warehouse inventory of lithium ore of 30 sample lithium ore traders was 160,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, with salable inventory of 100,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons. Last week, lithium salt prices fluctuated at a high level. Due to contract month - changing and postponed delivery at the ore end, the processing fee space of lithium salt plants increased slightly, and there were more scattered transactions of lithium ore. Overall, lithium ore inventory continued to transfer to lithium salt plants. [1] Cost - The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also increased. [1] Supply - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, with the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreasing and that from other sources increasing. [1] Demand - Downstream: Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the output of ternary materials decreased. In December, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate and manganese acid lithium decreased, while the output of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand: In November, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; 3C shipments weakened; in December, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries stagnated. [1] Inventory - Registered warehouse receipts were 13120 tons (+2198 tons). Social inventory was destocked, with smelters and other sectors reducing inventory, and downstream was tight. [1]