中原期货晨会纪要-20251209

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized that in 2026, economic work should adhere to the principle of making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, and continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 24.46 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, and imports were 1.675 trillion yuan, up 0.2% [7]. - Many experts expect that China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, with the fiscal deficit ratio not lower than 4% in 2025, and continue to moderately increase the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds, etc., making the new government debt scale in 2026 exceed about 12 trillion yuan in 2025, possibly between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On December 9, 2025, most chemical futures contracts showed a downward trend. For example, the price of crude oil futures dropped by 2.098% to 448 yuan/ton, and the price of glass futures dropped by 2.096% to 981 yuan/ton. Only a few contracts such as 20 - number rubber, paper pulp, and LPG showed an upward trend [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee analyzed and studied the economic work in 2026, emphasizing multiple aspects such as expanding domestic demand, innovation - driven development, and risk prevention [7]. - China's foreign trade maintained growth in the first 11 months of 2025, with exports growing faster than imports [7]. - The national tax department organized tax and fee revenues of more than 29 trillion yuan from January to November this year, and investigated and recovered 1.523 billion yuan in taxes from 1,818 "high - income and high - net - worth" individuals [8]. - Domestic refined oil prices had a "two - consecutive decline", with the retail price limits of gasoline and diesel per ton reduced by 55 yuan starting from 24:00 on December 8 [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures: On December 8, the price dropped by 0.67% to 8,018 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term may continue to be weakly volatile [13]. - Sugar futures: On December 8, the price rose slightly by 0.34% to 5,337 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is high, and the short - term may turn to a shock, with limited upside space [13]. - Corn futures: On December 8, the price dropped by 1.57% to 2,261 yuan/ton. The supply is tight in the short - term, and the demand is stable. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up the price [13]. - Cotton futures: On December 8, the price was flat at 13,750 yuan/ton. The supply is abundant, and the demand is marginally improved. The short - term is expected to be range - bound [15]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic market price is weakly running. The supply is expected to be reduced, and the demand is improving. The futures price may have a phased callback risk [15]. - Caustic soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The Shandong region is expected to be stable, and the East China region continues to be weakly running [15]. - Coking coal and coke: The supply and demand are both weak, and the short - term is under pressure and weakening [17]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: The market has a high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and copper and aluminum are running at a high level. Pay attention to macro risks [19]. - Alumina: The fundamental situation is in an oversupply pattern, and the contract is running at a low level [19]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The inventory contradiction is not significant, but it is temporarily dragged down by raw materials and is expected to have limited downward space [19]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - Stock index futures: On December 8, the three major indexes opened high and went high, and the trading volume increased. The spring market consensus is gathering. It is recommended to balance the allocation of relevant indexes [20].