尿素早评：短期注意回调风险，仍以逢低做多为主-20251209

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, attention should be paid to the callback risk as the recent decline in coal prices brings some downward pressure on the coal - chemical industry. However, in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the oversupply pressure, but from a driving perspective, the urea price is supported at a low level, and the bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices (UR01, UR05, UR09) decreased on December 8 compared to December 5. UR01 dropped from 1673.00 yuan/ton to 1646.00 yuan/ton (-1.61%); UR05 from 1736.00 yuan/ton to 1710.00 yuan/ton (-1.50%); UR09 from 1752.00 yuan/ton to 1724.00 yuan/ton (-1.60%). [1] - Domestic spot prices for small - granular urea in most regions either decreased or remained unchanged. For example, in Shandong, it dropped from 1720.00 yuan/ton to 1690.00 yuan/ton (-1.74%); in Henan, from 1710.00 yuan/ton to 1690.00 yuan/ton (-1.17%). [1] Key Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1661 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1640 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1646 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1651 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 167073 hands. [1] Long - Short Logic - In terms of valuation, the rebound of urea from the bottom is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In terms of drivers, export quotas will ease the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may encourage storage enterprises to enter the market. [1] Trading Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, focus on opportunities to go long on dips. [1]