首席点评：积极财政政策和宽松货币政策持续

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the economic situation and market trends of various commodities. It points out that China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, aiming to promote stable economic development and improve quality and efficiency. The market trends of different commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international policies, and macro - economic indicators [1][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Main News on the Day - International News: The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman responded to the Japanese Prime Minister's remarks on Taiwan, emphasizing that Asian neighbors and the international community should remain vigilant and urging Japan to reflect on its actions [6]. - Domestic News: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze the economic work in 2026, emphasizing the implementation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and highlighting the importance of people's livelihood and economic planning [6]. - Industry News: From January to November, the sales revenue of the mobile communication equipment retail industry and the household appliance retail industry increased by 20.3% and 26.5% respectively year - on - year, and the sales revenue of new energy passenger cars increased by 19.1% year - on - year [6]. II. Daily Returns of Foreign Markets - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.35%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.87%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 2.16%, and LME copper increased by 0.09% on December 8 compared with December 7 [7]. III. Morning Comments on Major Commodities - Financial Commodities - Stock Index: Before the policies of the Fed's December interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are officially announced, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and funds may be more cautious. After the policies are clear, market risk appetite is expected to increase [8]. - Treasury Bonds: The long - term Treasury bond futures prices remain weak due to factors such as the expected increase in policy introduction, the reduction of demand for long - term Treasury bonds, and the impact of new fund sales regulations [2][9][10]. - Energy and Chemical Commodities - Crude Oil: The overall downward trend of crude oil is difficult to reverse. The US labor market shows signs of stagnation, and the sanctions on Russian oil companies may have only a short - term impact on supply [11]. - Methanol: Methanol is expected to be weak in the short term. The domestic methanol plant operating rate has increased, and the coastal inventory has decreased, but it is still at a high level [12]. - Rubber: The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weak, and demand supports the stable operation of the all - steel tire industry [13]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefins are in a low - level oscillation process. The downstream demand is stable, but market sentiment is affected by the weakness of crude oil and other commodities [14]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Both glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The market is cautious. The adjustment effect of the glass supply side needs time, and the supply - demand digestion pressure of soda ash increases [15][16]. - Metals - Precious Metals: Although precious metals are weakly volatile in the short term, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to factors such as the weakening of the US dollar and central bank gold purchases [17]. - Copper: The copper price closed lower at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit due to mining supply disruptions [18]. - Zinc: The zinc price closed lower at night. The zinc concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the overall supply - demand difference is not obvious, but market sentiment needs to be concerned [19]. - Aluminum: The short - term aluminum price may face a correction. The long - term supply limitation and low inventory support the aluminum price, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is optimistic [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: The current price of lithium carbonate has a high risk of chasing up. In the long term, it is recommended to take a bullish approach after a correction [21][22]. - Black Commodities - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal and coke futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The demand for coking coal and coke is affected by the expected reduction in iron - making production, but policy expectations may provide upward momentum [23]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term. The market shows an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, but the low inventory level of steel mills and the obvious discount of the futures price support the price [24]. - Steel: The steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the positive macro - expectations and the stability of raw material prices support the price [25]. - Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The protein meal is expected to be weak. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is accelerating, and the domestic supply expectation is sufficient, which puts pressure on the price [26][27]. - Oils and Fats: Oils and fats are running weakly. The palm oil production recovery is lower than expected, but inventory accumulation may limit the upside. The arrival of Australian rapeseed eases the supply shortage expectation of rapeseed oil [3][28]. - Sugar: The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The international sugar price is affected by the production and export situation of Brazil and India, while the domestic supply pressure is increasing seasonally [29]. - Cotton: The cotton price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The domestic supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand and macro - sentiment support the price, but the upside space may be limited [30]. - Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The 02 contract of container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, and the 04 contract may decline further. The market is affected by factors such as the supply - demand relationship and the potential resumption of shipping in the Red Sea [31].