20251209申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20251209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined. On the spot market, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec remained stable, while those from PetroChina were partially reduced by 100 yuan. For drawn PP, the prices from both Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins themselves is at a low level, and after the current rebound, they generally maintain a low-level oscillation process [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - LL Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6643 yuan, 6708 yuan, and 6754 yuan respectively, with declines of -31 yuan, -34 yuan, and -34 yuan, and decreases of -0.46%, -0.50%, and -0.50% respectively. The trading volumes were 234,875, 153,809, and 1,942 respectively, and the open interests were 374,193, 315,983, and 5,089 respectively, with changes of -19,347, +21,166, and +386 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -65 yuan, -46 yuan, and 111 yuan respectively [2]. - PP Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6275 yuan, 6370 yuan, and 6409 yuan respectively, with declines of -12 yuan, -12 yuan, and -11 yuan, and decreases of -0.19%, -0.19%, and -0.17% respectively. The trading volumes were 299,256, 139,493, and 2,275 respectively, and the open interests were 423,064, 319,140, and 17,920 respectively, with changes of -11,444, +12,252, and +124 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -95 yuan, -39 yuan, and 134 yuan respectively [2]. Spot Market - Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2093 yuan/ton, 6100 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6083 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Mid - stream: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 7150 yuan, 6600 - 6900 yuan, and 6750 - 7100 yuan respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6200 - 6350 yuan, 6100 - 6250 yuan, and 6200 - 6450 yuan respectively [2]. News - On Monday (December 8), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.88 per barrel, down $1.20 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.00%, with a trading range of $58.68 - $60.30. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.49 per barrel, down $1.26 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.98%, with a trading range of $62.34 - $63.96 [2].