集运日报：SCFIS小幅上涨，主力合约震荡上行，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - After the optimistic sentiment fades and the long - short game is fierce, the SCFIS rises slightly, and the prices fluctuate between gains and losses at the time of market settlement. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On December 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 PMI and Investor Confidence Index - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The Sentix investor confidence index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a predicted value of - 8.5 [2]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2); the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [3]. 3.3 Main Contract Information - On December 8, the main contract 2602 closed at 1615.3, with a gain of 0.07%, a trading volume of 19,300 lots, and an open interest of 31,500 lots, a decrease of 749 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounds after a pull - back, and the fluctuation of the far - month contract slows down. Risk - takers are recommended to try a light position in the main contract. When the market dips slightly, it is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high point, wait for a pull - back and stabilization, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Contract Rules Adjustment - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4]. 3.6 Geopolitical Situation - On December 7, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the first phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement was basically completed. Israel will ensure the return of the remains of the last detainee, promote the cease - fire in Gaza to enter the second phase to achieve the disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, and then promote the third phase of "deradicalizing" the Gaza Strip. Hamas member Basem Naim said that Hamas still adheres to the "right to resist" but is willing to discuss disarmament within the framework of promoting the establishment of a Palestinian state and proposes a long - term cease - fire of 5 to 10 years for negotiation. Naim also welcomes the deployment of UN troops near the Gaza border to monitor the cease - fire but does not accept the authorization of UN troops to operate or exercise power within Palestinian territory [5].