综合晨报-20251209

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price dropped nearly 2% overnight. The resumption of production in Iraq and the expected increase in Russian oil exports under a potential peace agreement in Ukraine may lead to a downward trend in oil prices in the medium to long term, with increased volatility in the short term due to the game between positive and negative news [1]. - Precious metals continued to oscillate at high levels. With the U.S. economic data being mixed and the high probability of interest rate cuts priced in, attention is focused on Powell's statement at the Fed meeting. It is not advisable to chase high in the precious metal market before gold breaks through the previous resistance [1]. - The prices of various metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends of oscillation, rise, or fall [1 - 45]. Summaries by Related Categories Metals - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices dropped nearly 2%. Iraq restored production at the West Quran oil field, and the market expects increased Russian oil exports if a peace agreement is reached. There is a greater inventory accumulation expectation in Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices in the medium - long term remains [1]. - Precious Metals: Overnight, precious metals continued to oscillate at high levels. The probability of Fed rate cuts is over 80%. Gold should not be chased high before breaking through the previous resistance [1]. - Copper: Overnight, copper prices oscillated at high levels. There is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause this week. If the Fed cuts rates or the domestic spot premium weakens, the high - priced copper may correct. Long positions can be held along the MA5 moving average with partial active profit - taking [2]. - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum slightly declined. In the medium term, the upward - oscillating trend continues, but in the short term, due to the approaching Fed meeting, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The spot price of Baotai ADC12 decreased. With tight scrap aluminum supply and unclear tax policy adjustment, it is worth paying attention to the possible narrowing of the spread with Shanghai aluminum at the end of the year [4]. - Alumina: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to operate weakly, but the short - term downward space on the futures market may be limited [5]. - Zinc: The expectation of domestic smelter production cuts is strong, and zinc prices are expected to rise and may break through the annual line [6]. - Lead: The decline in both domestic and foreign inventories supports lead prices, but the rebound space of Shanghai lead is restricted. It is expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [7]. - Tin: The fundamentals of tin are expected to turn bearish in the medium - long term. Attention should be paid to high - level risks, and it is advisable to arrange out - of - the - money put options for distant contracts [8]. Energy - related Chemicals - Polysilicon: The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened. Supply reduction is less than expected, and demand is shrinking. The market is mainly supported by leading enterprises [9]. - Industrial Silicon: The price has fallen to the lower limit of the range. With potential supply and demand pressures at the end of the year, the price may further decline if production cuts in Xinjiang are limited [10]. - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: The cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are oscillating weakly. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the prices are expected to oscillate [18]. - Asphalt: Supply has slightly increased, while demand has decreased. The commercial inventory depletion rhythm has slowed down, and the BU trend is under pressure [19]. - Urea: The urea futures price dropped significantly. Supply is abundant, and the market is expected to oscillate downward [20]. - Methanol: The methanol futures price continued to fall. Port inventories remain high, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [21]. - Pure Benzene: The price of pure benzene has fallen. Although there is expected inventory accumulation in December, the supply - demand pressure will be relieved in the future. It is advisable to consider positive spreads for month - to - month contracts at low prices [22]. - Styrene: The domestic supply - demand of styrene remains in a tight balance. The short - term price may continue to rise [23]. - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: Propylene prices are firm, while polyethylene demand is weak, and polypropylene is in a seasonal demand off - season [24]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is operating weakly, and caustic soda is also in a weak trend. Both industries face high inventory pressure [25]. - PX & PTA: PX and PTA prices slightly declined. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and the PTA processing margin is expected to recover [26]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure, and it is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. The medium - term trend is weak [27]. - Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip: Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - grade chip demand is weak. The long - term supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is relatively good [28]. Steel and Minerals - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures price weakened. Supply is relatively abundant, and the long - term trend has a downward pressure [12]. - Coke: The coke price oscillated downward. There is an expectation of a second price cut, and the price may oscillate weakly [13]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal price oscillated downward. The supply is abundant, and the price may oscillate weakly [14]. - Manganese Silicon: The price oscillated. The port inventory has a structural problem, and the bottom support needs to be observed [15]. - Silicon Iron: The price oscillated. The supply has decreased, and the demand is still resilient. The bottom support needs to be observed [16]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The soybean meal futures price oscillated weakly. South American weather has improved, and attention is paid to the USDA report. There are opportunities to go long on the 05 contract at low prices [32]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The price of soybean oil is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium term, and the palm oil is expected to oscillate within a range. Attention is paid to the MPOB report [33]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed meal and oil futures prices may continue to be weak in the short term. Attention is paid to the USDA report [34]. - Soybean No.1: Domestic soybeans oscillated horizontally. Short - term attention is paid to the spot and policy [35]. - Corn: The corn price is in a short - term high - level oscillating correction. Attention is paid to short - selling opportunities for the 01 contract [36]. - Pigs: The pig futures price rebounded. The long - term pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and there may be a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [37]. - Eggs: The egg futures price may be weak in the near - term and the far - term high is expected to be established [38]. - Cotton: The U.S. cotton price continued to fall, and the domestic cotton price oscillated. The downstream demand is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [39]. - Sugar: The international sugar price oscillated. The supply is relatively abundant, and attention is paid to the production in India and Thailand and in China's Guangxi [40]. - Apples: The apple futures price oscillated at a high level. The short - term price is strong, and attention is paid to inventory depletion [41]. Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The SCFIS European route index slightly increased. The price may be adjusted at the end of December, and the 02 contract may reflect the peak - season level. The far - term contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation [17]. - Wood: The wood futures price oscillated. Low inventory supports the price, and it is advisable to wait and see [42]. - Pulp: The pulp futures price fell. The inventory decreased, and the medium - term trend may be range - bound. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [43]. - Stock Index: The A - share market rose strongly. The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies. It is advisable to increase positions at low prices after major central bank meetings [44]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures oscillated. After the improvement of liquidity, there are opportunities for rebound in some varieties [45].