债市的“盲点”：警惕低利率环境下“高波动”陷阱

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Low - interest environment is not a "safe haven" for low bond - market volatility. Overseas bond markets in low - interest environments often experience rapid and significant adjustments, and bond "convexity" amplifies market volatility [3][80]. - The "homogeneous strategies" and crowded trading behaviors of institutions in a low - interest environment are the micro - foundation of bond - market vulnerability. Reversals in macro - fundamental expectations can trigger rapid bond - market adjustments, and the "rebalancing" of funds exacerbates market volatility [4][80]. - In 2026, the economy is expected to move from "confidence building" to an "atypical" recovery. Nominal GDP repair may lead to fund "rebalancing", and the process of large - scale deposit maturity may intensify bond - market volatility [5][80]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Overseas Experience as a Mirror? "Low - interest" Environment May Not Be a "Safe Haven" for Volatility - Low - interest is not a guarantee of low bond - market volatility. After 1990, the rule that "lower interest rates lead to narrower volatility" in US Treasuries failed, and the volatility of government bonds in other developed economies did not converge as their interest rates dropped from 2% to 1% [3][12]. - Bond - market adjustments in low - interest overseas environments are large - scale, fast, and often accompanied by rising term premiums. The average adjustment amplitudes of the US, Germany, France, and Japan are 81bp, 53bp, 59bp, and 74bp respectively, usually occurring within 1 - 2 months [3][21]. - Bond "convexity" magnifies market volatility in low - interest environments. A 30Y Treasury bond's price decline in a low - interest reversal is about 1.7 times that in a high - interest environment [3][26]. 2. Behind the "High - volatility" Trap? Extreme Deduction of Consensus Expectations and Backlash under Macro - environment Changes - In a low - interest environment, the "homogeneous strategies" of institutions are the micro - foundation of bond - market vulnerability. Allocation - type institutions extend durations, and trading - type institutions increase leverage [4][31]. - Reversals in macro - fundamental expectations are the direct cause of high bond - market volatility. High bond - market volatility in the low - interest era often occurs during interest - rate cuts, and nominal GDP repair is an important trigger [4][38]. - The "rebalancing" of funds due to macro - environment changes exacerbates bond - market volatility. During bond - market adjustments, equity markets usually rise, diverting funds from the bond market [4][45]. 3. Current Reflection? In the "Atypical" Recovery of 2026, Be Wary of the "High - volatility" Trap in the Bond Market - In 2026, the economy is expected to recover atypically. Domestic demand will improve with the easing of the "crowding - out effect" of debt resolution and the deepening of domestic - demand expansion policies. External demand will remain strong, and inflation will improve, while monetary policy will be cautious about interest - rate cuts [5][59]. - Nominal GDP repair often leads to fund "rebalancing" and a "strong - stock, weak - bond" pattern. Currently, the market still has room to return to normal, and the difference between the 10Y Treasury yield and the all - A dividend yield is still below 0% [5][64]. - The domestic bond market has insufficient awareness of the "high - volatility" trap in a low - interest environment. With the record - high wealth - management scale and large - scale resident excess savings, the process of large - scale deposit maturity may intensify bond - market volatility [5][69].